The resuming nine-time winner Auspicious Queen is considered the biggest danger to Alpine Butterfly winning her third straight race in a Grade 5 460m event at Warragul tonight.
Pink Diamond finalist Throw Caution v Narcissus v Disorientated v G2 finalist Daniel Avocado should be a terrific clash, while at Horsham, G1 runner-up Fernando Mick faces G3 finalist Zigzag Cabang and the in-form Sinful Angel.
Dale Code’s Predicted Market Firmer
ALPINE BUTTERFLY
TAB fixed odds at 8:50am: $1.90 Win
? Warragul ? Race 8 ? Box 8 ⏱ 9:05pm
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666542968/race/8
Today’s Drawcards
Trainer: David Geall
? Horsham ? Race 10
? Box 2 ? 410m ⏱ 6:15pm
Claim to fame:
– 2nd Group 1 Maturity Classic
– Won last 2
TAB fixed odds: $1.60
The Watchdog says: No
Trainer: Marien Sullivan
? Horsham ? Race 11
? Box 5 ? 485m ⏱ 6:35pm
Claim to fame:
– Won 3 straight; 4 of last 5
– Won 2 from 2 Trk/Dst
TAB fixed odds: $3.10
The Watchdog says: Yes
Trainer: Michelle Mallia
? Horsham ? Race 12
? Box 8 ? 485m ⏱ 6:54pm
Claim to fame:
– 1st Shepparton Classic
– 61% top-three from 26 starts
TAB fixed odds: $2.15
The Watchdog says: Yes
? THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT ?
? Tuesday 12 April
? $5 Multi
First ?: Win – PROPELLED
? Healesville ? Race 7 ? Box 1 ? 350m ⏱ 12:53pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.50 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666542965/race/7
Second ?: Win – EXTREME JEWEL
? Warragul ? Race 5 ? Box 1 ? 460m ⏱ 8:05pm
TAB fixed odds: $2 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666542968/race/5
Third ?: Win – ARCHIE’S ENTITY
? Warragul ? Race 11 ? Box 1 ? 460m ⏱ 10:09pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.35 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666542968/race/11
The Watchdog says ? : PROPELLED (1) is two-of-two here and he has a fair bit on his rivals talent and class wise. EXTREME JEWEL (1) is a gifted speedster, and she is drawn to get all the breaks tonight. ARCHIE’S ENTITY (1) is a serious prospect, and he owns a blistering 25.64sec PB here, so he should be winning with ease.
Multi price: $4.05
? $3 Win – ALL OUT
? Warragul ? Race 1 ? Box 8 ? 400m ⏱ 6:38pm
TAB fixed odds: $4.40 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666542968/race/1
The Watchdog says ? : He led for a long way here last Tuesday night and was going to carve out around 22.75sec before being taken off the track in the home straight. He only has the two runs under his belt, so I’m expecting him to continue to improve and he should have enough pace to cross in the initial stages.
? $2 Trifecta – 8 / 3 / 2,4,5,6 (50%)
? Must Watch Race ?
Grade 5
? Warragul ? Race 8
? 460m ⏱ 9:05pm
The Watchdog says ?: ALPINE BUTTERFLY (8) has been enormous since resuming and she will take a power of beating, while the classy AUSPICIOUS QUEEN (3) should be on the pace throughout and can fill the quinella spot. We have gone wide for third in the hope of securing some value.
‘Must Watch Race’ Preview ?:
ALPINE BUTTERFLY (8) showed enormous potential in her first preparation; however, she has gone to another level in her two runs since resuming. She speared the lids two runs back when carving out a ridiculous 25.54sec here and she followed that up with a come-from-behind 25.88sec win. If she can step on terms, she should assume control through the bend and score with ease. AUSPICIOUS QUEEN (3) has the class edge over her rivals, and she scored some blistering wins at The Meadows in November last year. She hasn’t raced since December, but she is in good hands. KARMEN KRISTY (5) has been showing slick early speed of late and she will be better suited back to this distance range.
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666542968/race/8
The Watchdog’s selections: 8 – 3 – 5 – 2
? RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS ?
Monday 11 April: $20.56 (+105%)
Sunday 10 April: $9.45 (-6%)
Saturday 9 April: $0 (-100%)
Friday 8 April: $23.02 (+130%)
Thursday 7 April: $0 (-100%)
Wednesday 6 April: $0 (-100%)
Tuesday 5 April: $0 (-100%)
Past 7 days: $53.03 for $70 invested (-25%)
Past 14 days: $133.84 for $140 invested (-5%)
Past 28 days: $315.20 for $280 invested (+12%)
? MONTH x MONTH RECORD
March 2022: $392.18 for $310 (+26%)
February 2022: $288.97 for $280 (+3%)
January 2022: $302.53 for $310 (-3%)
December 2021: $384.82 for $300 (+28%)
November 2021: $300.47 for $300 (Even)
October 2021: $311.40 for $310 (Even)
September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-27%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)
NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.
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