• Wednesday, 08 Sep, 2021,
  • by @WatchDogRacing

Daily Mail: Koblenz to bounce back at Cranbourne

After five straight defeats, sprint sensation Koblenz (17 from 29 – 3 from 3 Box 1) should return to the winners list in style when he headlines Wednesday’s Cranbourne card.

David Geall’s superbly-bred speed machine created headlines with a dazzling 11-race winning streak but has filled minor placings in his last five starts, albeit in elite company against the likes of Aston Rupee, Aston Fastnet and Mr. Fix It.

While Koblenz is yet to salute in two visits to Cranbourne during the G3 Classic series, The Watchdog is expecting him to bounce back bigtime, labelling his duel with the clock to be Tuesday’s Must Watch ‘race’.

Evergreen veteran Run Baba Run (25 wins – 4 from 9 Trk/Dst) won 2 starts back at Cranbourne and will be striving to repeat the dose when she clashes with Monaleen Flo (9 from 22 – 6 from 11 Trk/Dst).

The feature clash at The Meadows will see Andrea Dailly’s in-form G2 Cranbourne Cup winner Jax Bale (16 wins) challenged by kennelmate Providence Bale (18 wins) and David Geall’s Bounce Back (12 wins).

At Ballarat, Deb Coleman’s Zipping Zarbo (28 from 62 – 4 from 7 Box 8) is striving to enhance her superb strike rate when she meets the talented Aubameyang (12 from 39).

Indy Matilda (8 from 21 – 4 from 6 Box 1) is the ‘one’ to beat in the 545m Grade 5 final, with Eat My Dust (6 from 13) looming as the main threat.

Jason Thompson’s lightly-raced duo Decimate (3 from 3) and In The Spotlight (2 from 3) are both chasing back-to-back Ballarat successes, while kennelmates Overshadowed (11 from 26) and Amnesty are also expected to figure prominently.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Top Cat Video Grade 5 Heat 2

KOBLENZ  ? The Clock

? Cranbourne ? Race 8 ? Box 1 ? 520m 5:14pm



The Watchdog says ?: KOBLENZ (1) is one of the hottest prospects in the business and he was enormous at Sandown Park last week. After a solid beginning, he had to work hard to get to the front and after leading for most of the journey, it took a mighty Aston Rupee to reel him in. From the red draw today, he should be able to pounce on the early lead and if the track is in good condition, he should be able to go well under the 30 seconds barrier. He has been beaten in his past five, but he has been big in all of those runs and I think he is ready to take the upcoming spring carnival by storm. If there is a danger tonight, it may come from ASTON SUNSET (2). She has raced extremely well here to date and she should follow the top elect through at the first bend. I do not think she can reel him in, but she should be able to fill the quinella spot. SWEET DEMI (8) has been racing with minimal luck of late and she is expected to show some improvement today. From the favourable draw, she should get plenty of room in the initial stages and be prominent throughout.

Selections:  1 – 2 – 8 – 5

? Wednesday 8 September

? $2 Multi

?: Place – MY ENVY
? The Meadows ? Race 1 ? Box 3 ? 600m ⏱ 11:26am
TAB fixed odds: $1.75 Place (Top two finish required)
Form ?


Second ?: Place – SHANLYN HUNTER
? The Meadows ? Race 2 ? Box 2 ? 525m ⏱ 11:45am
TAB fixed odds: $1.75 Place (Top two finish required)
Form ?


 Third ?: Place – INDY FIDO
? The Meadows ? Race 10 ? Box 4 ? 525m ⏱ 2:32pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.60 Place (Top two finish required)
Form ?


The Watchdog says ? : MY ENVY (3) and SHANLYN HUNTER (2) are both powerful types and they will appreciate the smaller line-ups today. We are backing them straight out separately as well, so we have taken them for a top two finish in the multi to be safe. INDY FIDO (4) showed his true talent with a dynamic 25.16sec Ballarat win last time and he will be carving out serious sectionals in front today.
Multi price: $4.90

? $3 Win – MY ENVY
? The Meadows ? Race 1 ? Box 3 ? 600m ⏱ 11:26am
TAB fixed odds: $3.30
Form ?


The Watchdog says ? : He turned in a strong performance to score at Shepparton last time over 450m and gives every indication that this distance range will suit. MARS ROVER (4) should lead them up, but he is seriously suspect over the final stages and with the smaller line-up, MY ENVY (3) should be able to settle in the top three and will be there to pounce as they head off the back straight.

? The Meadows ? Race 2 ? Box 2 ? 525m ⏱ 12:00pm
TAB fixed odds: $3.60
Form ?


The Watchdog says ? : He is still learning what it is all about, but he turned in an impressive performance here last week and should be much better for the run. He is likely to get back early, but weaved his way through the field nicely last week, so he should be able to navigate his way through again and be ready to make an impact as they turn for home.

? $1 Win – GEMMA BLUE 
? $1 Win – TWO UP TOMMY        ? Lucky Longshot ?
? The Meadows ? Race 4 ? Boxes 6 & 8? 350m ⏱ 12:20pm
TAB fixed odds: $5 (Gemma Blue)
TAB fixed odds: $8.50 (Two Up Tommy)
Form ?


The Watchdog says ? : GEMMA BLUE (6) is far better than her form indicates and she will appreciate the drop in class. She can lead or come from off the pace in her races and with an ounce of luck at the bend, she should figure prominently. TWO UP TOMMY (8) can show early speed in his races and may have enough pace to cross at the bend. If that occurs, he may be able to steal a break as they bunch behind him.

? $1 Trifecta – 1 / 2 / 3,5,8 (33.33%)
? Cranbourne ? Race 8 ? 680m ⏱ 5:14pm         ? Must Watch Race ?
Form ?

The Watchdog says ? : KOBLENZ (1) is a legitimate rocket and should be winning easily. ASTON SUNSET (2) should follow him through at the bend and fill the quinella spot. RUNNIN’ RIOT (3), ZIPPING JAZZ (5) and SWEET DEMI (8) can duke it out for third spot.


Tuesday 7 September: $7.58 return (-24%)
Monday 6 September: $11.98 return (+20%)
Sunday 5 September: $9.60 return (-4%)
Saturday 4 September: $10.17 (+2%)
Friday 3 September: $10.15 (+2%)
Thursday 2 September: $6.20 (-38%
Wednesday 1 September: $8.37 (-16%)


Past 7 days: $64.05 for $70 invested (-9%)
Past 14 days: $110.41 for $140 Invested (-21%)
Past 28 days: $210.57 for $280 Invested (-25%)




August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

*Please gamble responsibly



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