• Thursday, 12 Aug, 2021,
  • by @WatchDogRacing

Daily Mail: Rupee to grab Vic Sprint ‘cash’

The Meadows moves into the Thursday night spotlight this week, with the highlight the Victorian final of the National Sprint Championship, where potential superstar Aston Rupee will start favourite.

Aston Rupee (11 from 21 – 29.47sec PB) is striving to turn the tables on his heat conqueror, track specialist Mr. Fix It (17 from 40 – 11 from 19 Trk/Dst), with Jepara (16 from 44 – 7 from 17 Trk/Dst) and Jax Bale (15 wins) also very much in the mix.

In the Distance final, Hank The Hustler (17 from 49 – 3 from 7 Box 8) is set to repeat his victory in the G3 Fireball over Trk/Dst 2 starts back.

The clash between G1 Brisbane Cup winner Equalizer (20 from 47 – 6 from 11 Trk/Dst), Do It (5 from 12 Trk/Dst) and dual G1 winner Tiggerlong Tonk (39 from 84 – 8 from 14 Box 8) will provide a mouth-watering appetiser to the Sprint showdown.

Earlier in the night, classy kennel and littermates Mepunga Warrior (9 from 33 – 3 from 5 Box 1) and Mepunga Ruby (9 from 15 – 7 of past 9) are poised to continue their impressive middle distance and staying form.

So too is G3 Launching Pad winner Kuro Kismet (13 from 35 – 4 of past 5), coming off a first-up success over 595m at Sandown Park.

Meanwhile at Warrnambool, G1 placegetter Papi Go Fast (25 from 45) steps up to 450m, having won 2 from 3 over 390m, and Osprey Rose (5 from 13 – 2 from 2 Trk/Dst) is chasing a fourth straight win

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Vic National Sprint Final


? The Meadows ? Race 8 ? 525m 8:37pm

 Form ?

The Watchdog says ?: Some of the state’s best speedsters are set to do battle and any one of the eight chasers could get the cash. ASTON RUPEE (5) is the rockstar and with an ounce of luck early, he should win. But from the awkward draw and with an even amount of speed drawn either side, he may get crowded in the run to the first bend. MR. FIX IT (8) is the track specialist and has won three of his past four here, with the only defeat being in the Group 1 Maturity Classic final. He consistently goes sub-5.05sec to the first marker and that would be more than enough to see him cross at the bend and zip away as they bunch behind. JEPARA (3) is one of the most honest chasers in the game and the only chaser in the event who can match the ‘pink’ in the initial stages. He comes into this having won seven of 17 this track/distance and with a 29.82sec PB, he must be respected. JAX BALE (6) is another of the ‘big guns’ and has returned to his brilliant best in recent weeks. If he can spear the lids, he’s a leading chaser. But from the awkward draw, I’m expecting him to bump with ‘Rupee’ in the initial stages and that would see him face an uphill battle. It should be a keenly contested affair and I can’t wait to see who is crowned Victoria’s sprint champ.

Selections:  8 – 5 – 3 – 7

? Thursday 12 August

? $4 Multi

?: Bundle Bet – 1,2,3,6,8

? The Meadows ? Race 1 ? Boxes 1,2,3,6,8 ? 525m ⏱ 6:07pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.57 Win (any one of the five selections to win)
Form ?


? The Meadows ? Race 2 ? Box 1 ? 600m ⏱ 3:17pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.45 Win

Bundle Bet – 2,3,5,6
? The Meadows ? Race 3 ? Boxes 2,3,5,6 ? 600m ⏱ 6:44pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.24 Win (any one of the four selections to win)

Bundle Bet – 1,2,3,7,8
? The Meadows ? Race 9 ? Boxes 1,2,3,7,8 ? 525m ⏱ 8:58pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.24 Win (any one of the five selections to win)

The Watchdog says
? : Race 1 is very open, and I think the inside division can dominate. But we’ve included PEAK PUB (8) from out wide, as he has the speed to cross at the bend. MEPUNGA WARRIOR (1) was brilliant here last week and is drawn to lead throughout. GRACLYN BALE (5) and CARRY ON MAXWELL (6) have the class edge in Race 3, but we’ve included likely leader KINSON BALE (2) and the strong finishing UP THE AMOUNT (3). ULTIMATE AVENGER (4) is a solid winning chance in Race 9 but well under the odds, so we’ve gone wide in that race, in the hope that the inside three runners can hold the top at the first bend.

Multi price:

? $2 Place – BUSY TIME
? The Meadows ? Race 1 ? Box 3 ? 525m ⏱ 6:07pm
TAB fixed odds: $5.00 Place

The Watchdog says ? : He can make a lot of mistakes in his races but is blessed with a huge motor. And with the inside two runners expected to hold a prominent spot at the bend, he should get a nice run through as they head to the back. He currently represents terrific value to finish in the top three.

? The Meadows ? Race 4 ? Box 1 ? 725m ⏱ 7:07pm
TAB fixed odds: $6.50 Win

The Watchdog says ? : Her run at Sandown Park last week was colossal after getting pushed wide at the first bend. She continually found trouble in running but still hit the line well. From the ‘red’, I expect her to hold a top two or three spot as they head into the bend, and she should receive clear running throughout the journey.

? $2 Quaddie – 1.85% (108 combinations)
? The Meadows ? Races 5 – 8 ⏱ 7:28pm ***Includes Must Watch Race***
Form ?

?: 2,3,4,6,7,8
? ?: 3,4,6
? ? ?: 2,8
? ? ? ?: 3,5,8

The Watchdog says ? : KURO KISMET (1) has the clear class edge in the first leg; however, he’s well under the odds at present and with a tendency to push off the track, the ‘red’ draw will not suit on a bend start. So, we’ve gone wide in that leg in the hope of securing some value. There’s a fair bit of early speed in the second leg, so we’ve taken on TIGGERLONG TONK (8) as he may be pushed wide at the bend. NIHARI BALE (3) is racing well, while DO IT (4) and Group 1 winner EQUALIZER (6) are both gifted chasers and can come from off the pace. DRAKO BALE (2) and HANK THE HUSTLER (8) are the two in-form stayers at present and should dominate the third leg, while track specialists JEPARA (3) and MR. FIX IT (8) appear leading chances in the last leg. We’ve also included ASTON RUPEE (5) from the tough draw because he’s simply too good to dismiss.

Wednesday 11 August: $0 (-100%)
Tuesday 10 August: $23.40 (+134%)
Monday 9 August: $0 (-100%)
Sunday 8 August: $20.43 (+104%)
Saturday 7 August: $0 (-100%)
Friday 6 August: $15.30 (+53%)
Thursday 5 August: $29.65 (+197%)

Past 7 days: $88.78 for $70 invested (+27%)
Past 14 days: $131.22 for $140 Invested (-6%)
Past 28 days: $252.82 for $280 Invested (-10%)


July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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