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  • Saturday, 07 Aug, 2021,
  • by @WatchDogRacing

Daily Mail: Koblenz favoured for St Leger success

Pink Diamond winner Koblenz (17 from 24 – 3 from 3 Box 2) is eyeing his first Group race success in a terrific $35,500 G3 Warragul St Leger final this evening.

Aston Fastnet (10 from 22 – 25.35sec PB) conquered Koblenz in a G1 Maturity Classic heat and returned to form with the fastest G3 Warragul St Leger heat win last week.

Dual Group 1 winner Qwara Bale (19 from 32) is the sprint queen of Victoria, while Shima Classic (10 from 27 – 2 from 4 Box 5) looks to claim her first Group victory at her fourth attempt.

Before the G3 Warragul St Leger final, Rebellious (10 from 13) will look to atone for a luckless heat run, while G1 finalist Aussie Secret (24 from 48 – 4 from 8 Box 6) and G1 Maturity Classic runner-up Fernando Mick provide further star-power on the Warragul card.

At The Meadows, three heats of the Victorian Sprint Championship highlight the meeting with Equalizer (20 from 46 – 6 from 10 Trk/Dst) having his first start since his G1 Brisbane Cup triumph.

Last year’s G3 Warragul St Leger winner Catch The Thief (25 from 54) almost broke the Sale 520m track record last start and he faces Do It (5 from 12 Trk/Dst) and Jepara (7 from 16 Trk/Dst) tonight.

G3 winner Aston Rupee (11 from 20 – 29.47sec PB) v G1 Maturity Classic placegetter Mr. Fix It (16 from 39 – 10 from 18 Trk/Dst) should be a terrific contest while G2 Geelong Gold Cup winner Weblec Jet and Hank The Hustler – triumphant in the G3 Fireball final – also feature.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Group 3 Warragul St Leger Final

KOBLENZ
? SHIMA CLASSIC ? QWARA BALE ? ASTON FASTNET

? Warragul ? Race 8 ? 460m 7:44pm

Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538443/race/8


The Watchdog says
?: This time-honoured event gets better each year and continues to attract the sport’s best young talent. KOBLENZ (2) continues to rise to each occasion, and he was just brilliant when winning his heat in a scorching 25.65sec. He went through the first marker in a dazzling 6.43sec and had to work hard in the initial stages, so with a clean getaway tonight he should be able to trim down that time. He can hold the top spot early again and they may have to go sub-25.45sec to reel him in. ASTON FASTNET (8) is probably the most gifted chaser in the event, and he obliterated the semaphore board when winning his heat in an eye-popping 25.39sec. If he reproduces that, he will go very close to winning, however he can miss the kick and he may need a few things to go his way in running. SHIMA CLASSIC (5) set a cracking pace when placed in her heat and, with another good beginning, she can put herself in the mix again, however the slight concern with her is that she can be a little hit or miss at box rise. Sprint Queen QWARA BALE (7) continues to prove me wrong, and she was enormous in her 25.63sec heat win last week. I didn’t think she was much chance of crossing early, but she came out humming and won in dominant style. At the risk of being proven wrong once more, I think she may struggle to cross again tonight, but she is pure class and must be respected. KEEP IT BLUE (1) and KEEP IT BLACK (4) are both honest types and if there is to be an upset, it may come from one of these Angela Langton-trained runners.

Selections:  2 – 8 – 1 – 5

? THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT ?
Saturday 7 August

? $3.50 Multi


First
?: Win – AUDENZIA
? Warragul ? Race 1 ? Box 1 ? 460m ⏱ 5:28pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.90 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538443/race/1


Second
?: Place – PARUMBA BARCIA
? Warragul ? Race 9 ? Box 2 ? 400m ⏱ 8:03pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.85 Place (top two finish required)
Form
? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538443/race/9


The Watchdog says
? : AUDENZIA (1) has turned in some handy performances to date and she is drawn to get all the breaks tonight. With a wide runner on her outside, she will get room to balance up and she should assume control through the bend. PARUMBA BARCIA (2) has been racing with confidence and, with limited speed in the red, he can pounce on the early lead and a top two finish looks likely.

Multi price: $3.51

? $2 Quaddie – 66.66% (3 combinations)
? Warragul ? Races 5 – 8 ⏱ 6:44pm         ***includes Must Watch Race***
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538443/race/5

?: 7
? ?: 1,4,8
? ? ?: 4
? ? ? ?: 2


The Watchdog says
? : LAKEVIEW LOLA (7) will appreciate the smaller line-up and she should be leading throughout in the first leg. FERNANDO MICK (8) looks good in the second leg, however there is plenty of early pace in ULTIMATE AVENGER (1) and DERRY EXPRESS (4) in that race, so we have included them for some value. REBELLIOUS (4) is the hottest prospect in the sport and he should destroy the clock. KOBLENZ (2) continues to do everything right and he can land the main event.

? $3 Multi


First
?: Place – TOM THE CHEAP

? The Meadows ? Race 2 ? Box 5 ? 525m ⏱ 6:58pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.20 Place
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538442/race/2


Second
?: Win – CATCH THE THIEF
? The Meadows ? Race 4 ? Box 2 ? 525m ⏱ 7:37pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.80 Win
Form
? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538442/race/4


Third
?: Place – GRACLYN BALE
? The Meadows ? Race 9 ? Box 1 ? 600m ⏱ 9:19pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.40 Place (top two finish required)
Form
? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538442/race/9


The Watchdog says
? : TOM THE CHEAP (5) is a powerful type who is capable of leading or coming from off the pace in his races, so with an ounce of luck early, he can figure in the finish. CATCH THE THIEF (2) was enormous at Sale last time and, with a clear passage early, he should prove too strong late. GRACLYN BALE (1) is expected to hold a prominent spot at the bend and a top two finish is on the cards.

Multi price: $5.54

? $1.50 Quaddie – 6.25% (24 combinations)
? The Meadows ? Races 5 – 8 ⏱ 8:00pm
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538442/race/5

?: 2,3,6,8
? ?: 1,3,4
? ? ?: 3,7
? ? ? ?: 2


The Watchdog says ? : ASTON RUPEE (4) is a genuine superstar, but I think he is a risk in the first leg and well under the odds, so we are taking him on. The 725m event should be dominated by the speed runners, so we have included the three greyhounds expected to set the tempo. ROCKET BOY (1) can lead up the third leg, however he will get tired, and I’m expecting DAPH’S ZAC (3) and WEBLEC JET (7) to pounce mid race. LALA KIWI (2) is a serious prospect and, with the vacant draw on her outside, she should get every chance to score in the last leg.

? RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS ?
Friday 6 August: $15.30 (+53%)
Thursday 5 August: $29.65 (+197%)
Wednesday 4 August: $8.65 (-14%)
Tuesday 3 August: $0 (-100%)
Monday 2 August: $5.40 (-46%)
Sunday 1 August: $13.28 (+33%)
Saturday 31 July: $0 (-100%)


Past 7 days: $72.28 for $70 invested (+3%)
Past 14 days: $123.98 for $140 invested (-11%)
Past 28 days: $275.33 for $280 invested (-2%)

? MONTH x MONTH RECORD

July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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