The Western Festival of Racing concludes tonight with the $47,000 to-the-winner G2 Warrnambool Cup Final and track specialist Mepunga Mustang is eyeing his 15^th win at start 28.

Three-time G2 country cup champion Ferdinand Boy – victorious in 42 of his 78 races – and G2 Ballarat Cup winner Compliance are considered the biggest dangers to Mepunga Mustang.

Group winners Hennessey and Substantial clash in the $10,000 winner-take-all Cup Night Match Race, while G3 winner Weblec Ranger, the promising Mobile Legend and G2 runner-up McCooly’s Lad feature in the Stan Lake Memorial.

At The Meadows, G1 placegetter Carry On Angel and G3 runner-up My Name’s Stacey duel in a Mixed 4/5 525m race, while G1 finalist Fernando’s Quest stands out in a Mixed 4/5 600m event.

Today’s Racing

The Meadows: 11:41am start
Form     Tips     Key stats

Bendigo: 2:29pm start
Form     Tips     Key stats

Warrnambool: 6:15pm start
Form     Tips     Key stats

Traralgon: 6:44pm start
Form     Tips     Key stats

Today’s Drawcards

SUBSTANTIAL

Trainer: Anthony Azzopardi
? Warrnambool ? Race 4
? Box 3 ? 450m ⏱ 7:19pm

Claim to fame:
– 1st Group 2 Shepparton Cup
– 76% top-three from 34 starts

TAB fixed odds: $1.70

The Watchdog says: Yes

FERDINAND BOY

Trainer: David Geall
? Warrnambool ? Race 8
? Box 1 ? 450m ⏱ 8:38pm

Claim to fame:
– Three-time Group 2 winner
– Won 42 from 78

TAB fixed odds: $2.60

The Watchdog says: No

MEPUNGA MUSTANG

Trainer: Jeff Britton
? Warrnambool ? Race 8
? Box 8 ? 450m ⏱ 8:38pm

Claim to fame:
– 1st Warrnambool Derby
– Won 7 from 8 Trk/Dst

TAB fixed odds: $3.30

The Watchdog says: Yes

? THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT ?
? Wednesday 4 May

? $3 Win – BAHROSE
? The Meadows ? Race 9 ? Box 5 ? 525m ⏱ 2:32pm
TAB fixed odds: $3.20 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538544/race/9

The Watchdog says ? : She is showing enormous potential and I thought she was brilliant when placed here last Wednesday. After beginning well, she was about to assume control off the back straight before clipping heels and that cost her victory in the end. QUEEN AMAROK (1) will lead them up, but if BAHROSE (5) can sit outside the red runner, I think she can run over the top in the closing stages.

? $5 Place – ADELONG
? Bendigo ? Race 3 ? Box 8 ? 425m ⏱ 3:02pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.50 Place
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/772165750/race/3

The Watchdog says ? : She is still a maiden chaser and can do a lot of things wrong in her races, however she would easily trial the fastest of any chaser in this event and if she can avoid early bother, she will able to chase the leader and figure in the finish.

? $2 Exacta – 1,8 / 1,5,7,8 (33.33%)

? Must Watch Race ?

Group 2 Warrnambool Cup Final

? Warrnambool ? Race 8
? 450m ⏱ 8:38pm

The Watchdog says ?: Three-time Group 2 country cup champion FERDINAND BOY (1) and track specialist MEPUNGA MUSTANG (8) appear to have the edge and I think one of them will get the cash. Group 1 Maturity Classic runner-up FERNANDO MICK (5) and Group 3 Easter Gift placegetter OLD NEWS (7) are both strong types and they could add some value.

‘Must Watch Race’ Preview ?:

FERDINAND BOY (1) is aiming to capture his fourth Group 2 country cup. He was a brilliant 24.98sec heat winner and he went through the first marker in a sizzling 6.52sec. With ASTRO BOY (2) expected to move out wide, he should get plenty of cover in the first 100m and he is expected to hit the first turn in the lead. MEPUNGA MUSTANG (8) has won seven of eight this track/distance and he loves this draw, so if he can step on terms, he should turn for home in a prominent spot and the last 150m is when he does his best work. COMPLIANCE (6) landed the Group 2 Ballarat Cup recently and he is always a chance in these types of races, however with FERNANDO MICK (5) to race middle to wide, he will have to work hard in the first 100m, and that will make things difficult. OLD NEWS (7) likes to stay wide in his races, and he can run time coming from off the pace.

Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538636/race/8

The Watchdog’s selections: 8 – 1 – 7 – 5

Today’s News

WARRNAMBOOL CUP FINAL: ARMCHAIR GUIDE
ASTRO BOY ‘FLIES HIGH’
DOGS TO FOLLOW

? RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS ?

Tuesday 3 May: $0 (-100%)
Monday 2 May: $27.50 (+175%)
Sunday 1 May: $14 (+40%)
Saturday 30 April: $11.50 (+15%)
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Past 7 days: $61.10 for $70 invested (-13%)
Past 14 days: $143.46 for $140 invested (+2%)
Past 28 days: $311.29 for $280 invested (+11%)

? MONTH x MONTH RECORD

April 2022: $307.92 for $300 (+3%)
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February 2022: $288.97 for $280 (+3%)
January 2022: $302.53 for $310 (-3%)
December 2021: $384.82 for $300 (+28%)
November 2021: $300.47 for $300 (Even)
October 2021: $311.40 for $310 (Even)
September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-27%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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