• Thursday, 04 Nov, 2021,
  • by @WatchDogRacing

Daily Mail: Hume Cup winner at Sandown Park

Even though Knicks Bale (4 from 5 Trk/Dst) won Monday night’s G1 Hume Cup final (600m), The Watchdog has tipped G1 Sandown Cup finalist Kenny The Brute to win tonight’s 715m Special Event at Sandown Park.

G3 placegetter Overflow Lisa (4 of last 7), Whodat Diva (2 of last 3) and Sandra’s Sticker are also strong chances to prevail.

The 515m Free For All features G1 finalist Jepara (29.31sec PB), Usman Bale, recent G3 Great Chase winner Ridge (5 of last 7), G1 Sandown Cup champion Zipping Rambo (19 from 42) and G1 Brisbane Cup runner-up Music Event (3 of last 4 – 29.17sec PB).

Multiple Group finalist Dream Wizard (won last 4) faces Super Marli, Amnesty and Perfectly Poised in the Mixed 4/5 515m race, while Group finalists Whatever I Say, Highly Explosive and Mepunga Katie line up against Invictus Rising (4 of last 6) in the Mixed 4/5 595m event.

Alfie Alligator (3 from 4 Box 1) v G1 finalist Tough Tears v Sharni’s My Girl (2 of last 3) v G3 placegetter True Collinda should be a highly competitive race.

Nike Apache v Specialty (2 from 3 Trk/Dst) v High End (3 from 4) v Earthworm Jim (5 from 9) v Photo Man (3 from 5) will be a terrific 515m Restricted Win final.

At Warrnambool, Robin’s Choice v Boom Out (10 from 20) should be a top duel, while Rapid Reiko v Tan Star v Kaheem Bale (9 from 18) v G3 finalist Hennessey (won last 2 – 25.10sec PB) promises to be a strong Mixed 4/5 450m race.

In the Tier 3 meetings taking place, Crabby Yabby and Got A Repair are both considered strong chances at Shepparton, while Queen Of Mojo and Freeman’s Hope (2 from 3 Box 1) are both expected to triumph at Warragul.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Bold Trease – November 26 Special Event


? Sandown Park ? Race 4 ? 715m 7:43pm

Form ?

The Watchdog says
?: KNICKS BALE (1) captured the Group 1 Hume Cup on Monday night, and she steps up to the 715m journey this evening in preparation for the upcoming Group 1 Bold Trease. She is expected to roll to the early lead tonight and she has won four-of-five (80 percent) over this track/distance. However, most of her recent racing has been over 600m, so if she goes too hard early, she may be a sitting duck in the closing stages. KENNY THE BRUTE (7) has always shown tremendous promise as a stayer, and he returned to his brilliant best with a dazzling 41.53sec win here two runs back. He was an absolute moral beaten at Cranbourne last time as well, so he is racing with confidence at present and with the smaller line-up, he should be able to settle in the first two or three and he is really powering to the line at present. SANDRA’S STICKER (5) is the interesting runner. He gives every indication that he has what it takes to become a high-class stayer, however he has found the going tough in his past few runs when stepping up in class. I’m willing to give him another chance and with a clear run early, he could make a big impact. OVERFLOW LISA (2) rounds out the major players. She has turned in some big performances of late, however she is going to be giving some powerful types a head start tonight and I don’t think she will be able to bridge the gap. WHODAT DIVA (4) steps up to the big time tonight and she isn’t without a chance. She has been brilliant in her past three runs at Shepparton, and she is ready to tackle the 700m journey again. She has been beginning well of late and if she can settle in the top three, a minor upset could be on the cards.

 7 – 1 – 5 – 4

? Thursday 4 November

? Sandown Park ? Race 2 ? Box 1 ? 515m ⏱ 7:04pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.40 Win
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : He has shown good early speed in two of his three runs to date and from the red draw, he should be able to fire through and hold the lead at the first bend. He carved out a sizzling 29.68sec when scoring here on debut and with the potential to go sub 29.60sec, his rivals are unlikely to reel him in.

? Sandown Park ? Race 4 ? Box 7 ? 715m ⏱ 7:43pm     ? Must Watch Race ?
TAB fixed odds: $3.70 Win
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : ‘Kenny’ was enormous when scoring here two runs back in an electrifying 41.53sec and he followed that effort up with a huge performance at Cranbourne when a moral beaten. The small field will suit tonight, so he should be able to settle in the top two or three early and he may prove too strong in the closing stages.

? $4 Multi

? Sandown Park ? Race 7 ? Box 1 ? 515m ⏱ 8:49pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.40 Place
Form ?

?: Place – IMPULSE BUY
? Sandown Park ? Race 10 ? Box 1 ? 515m ⏱ 9:55pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.75 Place
Form ?

?: Place – BELLE ALI
? Sandown Park ? Race 11 ? Box 1 ? 515m ⏱ 10:19pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.50 Place
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : ALFIE ALLIGATOR (1) is drawn to lead, and he is getting stronger all the time, so if he does everything right at box rise, a top-three finish looks likely. IMPULSE BUY (1) is another who is expected to hold the top early and she is expected to figure prominently. She was dominant when scoring at Geelong last time and although she is suspect late, she should be able to place. BELLE ALI (1) is a track specialist, and she will be very strong in the closing stages. With a little luck at the bend, she should be able to make a big impact.

Multi price:


Wednesday 3 November: $10.20 (+2%)
Tuesday 2 November: $5 (-50%)
Monday 1 November: $18.70 (+87%)
Sunday 31 October: $0 (-100%)
Saturday 30 October: $10.55 (+6%)
Friday 29 October: $8.80 (-12%)
Thursday 28 October: $10.80 (+8%)

Past 7 days: $64.05 for $70 invested (-9%)
Past 14 days: $171.71 for $140 invested (+23%)
Past 28 days: $291.44 for $280 invested (+4%)


October 2021: $311.40 for $310 (Even)
September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-26%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

*Please gamble responsibly



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