The Watchdog believes Pink Diamond (500m) winner Koblenz (22 from 35 – 4 from 6 Box 4) has the opportunity to break through at Group level in his third attempt after two previous placings in tonight’s $50,000 to-the-winner G2 Cranbourne Cup final (520m).

Shepparton is also staging a feature race this evening with the $25,000 to-the-winner G3 Northern Districts Cup final (450m) containing G3 Great Chase finalists Reloaded and True Collinda plus Mania (2 of last 3), Aston Flame (9 from 18 – 3 from 3 Trk/Dst) and My Name’s Stacey (won last 5).

There are plenty of challengers to Koblenz in the G2 Cranbourne Cup final including G1 runner-up Fernando Mick (3 of last 6 – 29.62sec PB), recent G2 Bendigo Cup runner-up Lots Of Chatter (3 of last 4 – 4 from 6 Trk/Dst) and G3 winner Lala Kiwi (4 from 4 Trk/Dst – 29.69sec PB).

Jax Bale (29.68sec PB) is the reigning G2 Cranbourne Cup champion, while Daph’s Ascend (3 of last 6) is contesting her first Group final at start 58.

The $10,000 to-the-winner Cup Night Match Race (520m) pits dual G1 champion Tiggerlong Tonk (42 from 91 – 6 from 9 Box 1) against up-and-comer Invictus Rising (3 of last 5).

Group finalists Overflow Lisa (4 of last 6 – G3 placegetter), Drako Bale and Kenny The Brute (last start Sandown Park 715m winner) should provide a great battle in the $7,500 to-the-winner Victoria Cup (699m).

G2 Healesville Cup finalist Aston Geneve (6 from 9 – 4 from 4 Trk/Dst) is the standout chaser in the 311m Special Event, although The Watchdog is selecting Aston Profit (3 from 5 Trk/Dst) to cause an upset.

Along with the G3 Northern Districts Cup final at Shepparton, three-time G2 country cup champion Ferdinand Boy (31 from 54 – 21.31sec PB) appears in the $6,500 to-the-winner Doug Ferremi Memorial (385m), while G2 Bendigo Cup placegetter Typhoon Sammy (17 from 25) lines up in the Keith Warburton Memorial (450m).

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend…

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Group 2 RAM Security Cranbourne Cup Final

FERNANDO MICK ? LOTS OF CHATTER ? KOBLENZ ? LALA KIWI

? Cranbourne ? Race 8 ? 520m ⏱ 9:22pm

Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539147/race/8

The Watchdog says ?: Another thrilling country cup final and like most of these feature events, the run to the first bend is going to be crucial. FERNANDO MICK (2) was enormous in his scorching heat win and a repeat of that run can see him figure in the finish. However, he had the race run to suit and with the abundance of pace drawn outside tonight, he is likely to find bother in the initial stages. His kennelmate KOBLENZ (4) continues to do everything right in his races and he turned in a gutsy performance in his heat after getting softened up mid race by KINSON BALE. He went 5.39sec to the first marker and a repeat of that can see him cross at the bend and he may be off and gone as they head to the back. JAX BALE (6) is the reigning champion, and he needs to be respected, but he hasn’t been beginning that well of late, so from the poor draw, he will need a few things to go his way. LALA KIWI (7) is four-of-four this track/distance and she has the ability to lead or come from off the pace in her races and she is racing with tremendous confidence at present. DAPH’S ASCEND (1) is my second pick in the event. She was a brilliant 29.88sec heat winner and will appreciate the inside draw. She went 5.56sec to the first marker and from the favourable draw, she can probably go 5.45sec tonight, and that will see her head to the back in the top three and she will be strong in the run home. ASTON SHINE (5) deserves a mention. His kennel is on fire, and he has gone to another level in recent times. If he can step on terms, he should get a nice cart across early and he is capable of causing an upset.

Selections:  4 – 1 – 7 – 5

? THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT ?
? Saturday 30 October

? $2 Win – SUNSTRUCK     ? Lucky Longshot ?
? Shepparton ? Race 5 ? Box 1 ? 650m ⏱ 7:14pm
TAB fixed odds: $5.50 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539131/race/5

The Watchdog says ? : She missed the kick in her heat, and she was also checked when making a run as they turned for home. From the good draw tonight, she can hold a prominent spot early and with a clear passage, she may prove too strong in the run home.

? $4 Multi

 
First ?: Place – RELOADED    ? Northern Districts Cup ?

? Shepparton ? Race 8 ? Box 1 ? 450m ⏱ 8:16pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.80 Place
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539131/race/8

Second ?: Win – INVICTUS RISING      ? Cup Night Match Race ?
?Cranbourne ? Race 9 ? Box 3 ? 520m ⏱ 9:44pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.05 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539147/race/9

The Watchdog says ? : RELOADED (1) blew the start in his heat and from the red, I’m expecting him to step a lot better and he should be in the top three from the outset. TIGGERLONG TONK (1) obviously has the class edge, but he is nearing the end of his career and INVICTUS RISING (3) is flying at present. ‘Tonk’ is expected to lead but he will be a sitting duck for his rival in the closing stages.

Multi price: $3.69

? $2 Win – DRAKO BALE
? Cranbourne ? Race 6 ? Box 3 ? 699m ⏱ 8:38pm
TAB fixed odds: $4.40 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539147/race/6

The Watchdog says ? : He is as honest as they come and with the limited early speed drawn in one and two, he should be able to assume control as they head into the bend, and he is a different chaser when leading. KENNY THE BRUTE (5) returned to his brilliant best last time and is the obvious danger, however he is poorly drawn and will need a few things to go his way early.

? $2 Exacta – 1,4 / 1,4,5,6,7 (25%)
? Cranbourne ? Race 8 ? 520m ⏱ 9:22pm     ? Must Watch Race ?
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539147/race/8

The Watchdog says ? : DAPH’S ASCEND (1) and KOBLENZ (4) are expected to dominate from the outset and one of those should get the cash. We have gone wider for second in the hope of securing some value.

? RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS ?

Friday 29 October: $8.80 (-12%)
Thursday 28 October: $10.80 (+8%)
Wednesday 27 October: $26.49 (+165%)
Tuesday 26 October: $0 (-100%)
Monday 25 October: $18.03 (+80%)
Sunday 24 October: $16.70 (+67%)
Saturday 23 October: $21.20 (+112%)

Past 7 days: $102.02 for $70 invested (+46%)
Past 14 days: $172.41 for $140 invested (+23%)
Past 28 days: $292.99 for $280 invested (+5%)

? MONTH x MONTH RECORD

September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-26%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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