• Monday, 11 Oct, 2021,
  • by @WatchDogRacing

Daily Mail: Fugitive on the run at Shepparton

Even though Rack City (9 from 24 – 2 from 4 Box 6) has won two of his last four races, The Watchdog has selected You Fugitive (12 from 35) to claim victory in tonight’s Mixed 4/5 450m race at Shepparton.

Tobin Frost (2 of last 5) and Will Do are also given strong chances to cause a potential upset.

Incendio (8 from 16) v Uforo Bale (3 from 6 Box 6) v Rio Hato (5 from 8) v Zipping Vernon – the latter triumphant over multiple Group finalist Dream Wizard last month – should be a great battle.

Geelong Oaks finalist Tan Star (3 of last 5) v Greysynd Shock and Balbina Bale v the promising My Name’s Phil (5 from 13) are set to be terrific duels.

Javier Bale v Spring Driven (2 from 4 Box 6) v Aston Ryker should be another strong contest, while youngsters Zigzag Cabang (2 from 5) and last start Horsham 410m winner My Name’s Stacey are both predicted to impress.

Earlier at Warrnambool, The Watchdog is confident that Just Naughty will break through today, while Lektra Flying and Shaka Big Tonks are highly thought of.

Victory Fire and last start Cranbourne 311m winner Ludgate are expected to prevail in their respective races at Cranbourne, while Fenway Lights could be a topical selection with the Boston Red Sox in the Major League Baseball playoffs.

In the Tier 3 meeting at Ballarat, Willy Can Do should notch his first career victory at his fifth start, while Tiggerlong Jet and Aston Xavier are tipped to record victories in their respective races according to The Watchdog.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Gipp’s Shipping Containers Mixed 4/5


? Shepparton ? Race 8 ? 450m 9:29pm

Form ?

The Watchdog says
?: YOU FUGITIVE (1) has a great record over this track/distance, and he has come up with the gun draw tonight. He has proven in the past that he can run the hands off the clock and with a clean getaway he should be able to hold the top at the bend and push the 25.20sec mark. TOBIN FROST (3) has continued to improve with each run and his last three runs have been super impressive. His lack of early speed is always a concern; however, he should be able to find the rail soon after box rise, and he can take advantage of some rails runs as they head through the bend. He may not be able to reel the leader in tonight, but he is one to watch going forward and he might deserve a shot in town soon. RACK CITY (6) is the interesting runner. Early in his career, he was known as a straight tracker, however he has shown his versatility with an impressive win here and at Bendigo in recent months. The box draw has not done him any favours, but he will stay wide and with a slow beginner on his outside, he should get every chance to put himself into contention. WILL DO (8) rounds out the winning chances. He can be hard to follow but he has plenty of talent and from the good draw, he should get every chance to put himself into contention. Place punters might want to take a look at the enigmatic COOL LIMIT (7). She will get back early but she can unwind a big finish and if there is some bunching up front, she can pick off a few of them in the later stages.

Selections:  1 – 3 – 6 – 8

? Monday 11 October

? Warrnambool ? Race 2 ? Box 1 ? 390m ⏱ 11:59am
TAB fixed odds: $2.60 Win
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : He has shown good signs in his two runs to date, and I think he will be much better for the run here last time. He showed a great turn of foot here last Monday after missing the kick, however he could not get balanced through the corner. With that experience under his belt, he should handle the bend a lot better and from the good draw, I am expecting a better getaway and he may be able to hold the top through the first turn.

? $4 Multi

? Warrnambool ? Race 4 ? Box 1 ? 450m ⏱ 12:34pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.45 Win
Form ?

?: Place – BAG SECURED
? Shepparton ? Race 4 ? Box 1 ? 450m ⏱ 8:01pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.60 Place
Form ?

? Shepparton ? Race 6 ? Box 7 ? 450m ⏱ 8:45pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.55 Place
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : LEKTRA FLYING (1) was brilliant last time out and is expected to lead throughout. BAG SECURED (1) has turned in some great performances of late and with an ounce of luck early, a top three finish is likely. GREYSYND SHOCK (7) can be a little hard to follow but he loves racing around Shepparton. He will stay wide for most of the trip, so he should be able to finish in the money.

Multi price:

? $2 Standout Quinella – 1 / 5,7,8 (66.66%)
? Shepparton ? Race 4 ? 450m ⏱ 8:01pm
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : BAG SECURED (1) has been racing with tremendous confidence and from the good draw, a forward showing is expected. DUCK DUCK DASH (5) has the pace to cross and lead and he can bring NEVAEH BALE (7) and KRAKEN PEARLER (8) into the race and one of the those three can fill the quinella spot.

? $1 Trifecta – 1 / 3 / 2,4,6,7,8 (20%)
? $1 Trifecta – 1 / 2,4,6,7,8 / 3 (20%)
? Shepparton ? Race 8 ? 450m ⏱ 9:29pm     ? Must Watch Race ?

The Watchdog says
? : YOU FUGITIVE (1) should be leading throughout from the good draw. TOBIN FROST (3) is an improving type, and he will be charging to the line, so we have anchored him for second and third in sperate bets and gone wide to fill the spot either side.


Sunday 10 October: $10.75 (+8%)
Saturday 9 October: $15.53 (+55%)
Friday 8 October: $5.50 (-45%)
Thursday 7 October: $0 (-100%)
Wednesday 6 October: $0 (-100%)
Tuesday 5 October: $7 (-30%)
Monday 4 October: $22.40 (+124%)

Past 7 days: $62.25 for $70 invested (-11%)
Past 14 days: $124.55 for $140 invested (-11%)
Past 28 days: $226.69 for $280 invested (-19%)


September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-26%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

*Please gamble responsibly



Get a heads up on which SUPERSTAR GREYHOUNDS are racing every day, along with replays of the EYE-CATCHING WINNERS from the day before. Follow @WatchDogRacing on Twitter or Facebook.

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