The Watchdog is confident that G1 finalist Hill Top Jack (15 from 39) will be victorious in today’s hotly-contested $12,000 to-the-winner Grade 5 600m final at The Meadows.
Daph’s Zac v Tiberia Bale (2 from 5 Box 3) v Westar Aileen v Kasemi (3 of last 7) should be an even affair along with Group finalists Knicks Bale (3 of last 6) v Fernando Frank (3 of last 4 – 34.22sec PB) v I’m Easy Boys v the well-performed King Of Calypso.
The Mixed 3/4 525m race featuring last start winner Providence Bale, G3 runner-up Enter The Son (11 from 25 – 4 from 5 Trk/Dst), last month $77.70 winner Javi, G3 finalist Lala Ivory and Time For Peace (2 of last 3 – 29.69sec PB) promises to be a stirring battle.
Mac Rooster v Rasputin (3 from 7 – 2 from 2 Box 2) v Pink Diamond Champion Short Course (425m) runner-up Dr. Knuckles (3 of last 6) is another great battle, while Back Moo Moo is aiming to stretch her winning streak to four races since relocating to Victoria.
Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for 💰 The Watchdog’s $10 spend…
👀 MUST-WATCH RACE: Top Cat Video Grade 5 Final
HILL TOP JACK 🆚 RICCARTON RICK 🆚 INVICTUS RISING
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 5 📏 600m ⏱ 4:34pm
The Watchdog says 🎤: Great line-up and the airborne INIVICTUS RISING (8) appears to be the drawcard. He has always been an exciting chaser; however, he has gone to another level in recent months and his two runs over this distance range have been enormous. He is likely to start favourite again today, however I think he is a big risk. He has been beginning well of late but with an even spread of pace drawn inside, he is likely to be wide through the bend and will be giving some highly talented chasers a decent head start. HILL TOP JACK (2) is a tremendous talent, and he appears to be best served by the box draw. ASTON LAVINIA (1) is expected to fire through and hold the early lead and that should allow ‘Jack’ to follow her through and settle on her heels. The middle stages are where he does his best work and with a clear passage, he should be able to break up the field and he looks to be a great investment today. RICCARTON RICK (5) is another of the ‘big guns’ and he needs to be respected, however like the favourite, he appears to be poorly drawn. He speared the lids and went through the first marker in a sizzling 9.02sec, however I cannot see him repeating that and he may find himself buried back in traffic as they go past the post the first time. THUNDER TEARS (4) is the value runner. He has turned in some handy performances of late and if he can push through into a top three position early, he will be strong in the run home and may cause an upset.
Selections: 2 – 4 – 1 – 8
📢 THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT 📢
📅 Friday 8 October
💰 $4 Win – WESTERN BLAZER
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 3 🔲 Box 5 📏 525m ⏱ 3:47pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.10 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539059/race/3
The Watchdog says 🎤 : He was brilliant when placed here last Friday and he should find this event a lot easier. His kennelmate WEBLEC RAIDER (6) is his obvious danger, but he does take a step to the right soon after box rise. ‘Blazer’ should get plenty of room early and I expect him to assume control at the bend, and with the ability to go sub 30 seconds, they will have to dig deep to reel him in.
💰 $2 Win – HILL TOP JACK
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 5 🔲 Box 2 📏 600m ⏱ 4:34pm 👀 Must Watch Race 👀
TAB fixed odds: $4 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539059/race/5
The Watchdog says 🎤 : He is a gifted speedster and with ASTON LAVINIA (1) expected to fire through and lead, he should be able to follow her through and settle in the top two. He can carve out time when in the clear and he is getting stronger all the time, so if he does everything right early, he will get his chance to score.
💰 $2 Win – DAPH’S ZAC
💰 $1 Win – WESTAR AILEEN
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 6 🔲 Boxes 2 & 4 📏 525m ⏱ 4:52pm
TAB fixed odds: $3.80 Win (Daph’s Zac)
TAB fixed odds: $5.50 Win (Westar Aileen)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539059/race/6
The Watchdog says 🎤 : DAPH’S ZAC (2) has always done his best racing here and from the rails draw he is expected to show a return to form. INGA MIA (1) has early speed but has a flat patch after 40m, so ‘Zac’ should be able to find the rail as they head into the bend, and he is hard to hold out when in the clear. WESTAR AILEEN (4) has been far from disgraced in her past few runs and she has the speed to cross at the first bend. She is suspect in the closing stages, but if they shuffle up behind, she may be able to steal the event.
💰 $1 Win – LALA IVORY 🍀 Lucky Longshot 🍀
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 8 🔲 Box 7 📏 525m ⏱ 5:37pm
TAB fixed odds: $8 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539059/race/8
The Watchdog says 🎤 : She has been racing in strong company of late and she recorded her slick 30.03sec PB here from this draw. Her box manners are solid, and she possesses great pace soon after box rise, so with slow beginners on either side, she should gain a clear passage and settle in a threatening position. She is quite strong in the run home, so she represents some value.
💰 RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS 💰
Thursday 7 October: $0 (-100%)
Wednesday 6 October: $0 (-100%)
Tuesday 5 October: $7 (-30%)
Monday 4 October: $22.40 (+124%)
Sunday 3 October: $16.60 (+66%)
Saturday 2 October: $0 (-100%)
Friday 1 October: $7.80 (-22%)
Past 7 days: $53.80 for $70 invested (-23%)
Past 14 days: $138.38 for $140 invested (-1%)
Past 28 days: $210.44 for $280 invested (-25%)
📅 MONTH x MONTH RECORD
September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-26%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)
NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.
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