Two 450m heats of the G3 TAB Great Chase are taking place at Shepparton this evening with The Watchdog identifying the first heat on the card as the ‘Must Watch’ race of the night.

Substantial (25.10sec PB) was fourth in a G3 Warragul St Leger heat to the eventual winner Aston Fastnet at his last start, while Aston Komuni (2 from 2) has impressed in both of her Shepparton 450m starts.

Alfie Alligator (2 from 3 Box 1) v Tea Pot Creek v Tobin Frost (2 of last 4) v Combust (5 from 12) should be an even battle in the second G3 TAB Great Chase heat.

Aston Profit (3 from 5 Box 1) v Aubameyang v G2 finalist Bulleteer (17 from 43) v G1 finalist Handsome Rhino (8 from 19) is set to be a hotly-contested event.

Fishbone Express v Blazing Beast (3 from 7 Trk/Dst) v Mayhem Lass (2 of last 3) v Perfect Skipper (5 from 11) v Pay The Prince is another evenly-poised race, while Nowhere Nathe (4 from 8 Box 1) and Boom Out (8 from 16 – 2 from 3 Box 8) are both expected to prevail.

At Warrnambool, The Watchdog is confident that Mepunga Hayles and Molly Tessa will boost their respective victory tallies.

Strict Liability (2 from 4 Trk/Dst) v Fargo (2 from 4 Box 8) should be a close duel at Warragul, while Miss Tickle (2 of last 4) and Crispy Duck are both highly fancied by The Watchdog.

In the Tier 3 meeting at Ballarat, Senor Senor (won last 2), Canya Dig It and Inka Bale are considered strong chances to triumph.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend…

? MUST-WATCH RACE: TAB Great Chase Heat 7

SUBSTANTIAL ? ASTON KOMUNI

? Shepparton ? Race 6 ? 450m ⏱ 8:52pm

Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/698026266/race/6

The Watchdog says ?: SUBSTANTIAL (1) has not raced since late July but he showed enormous potential in his first preparation, and he is going to be a major player throughout this wonderful series. He owns a blistering 25.10sec PB here and I think at his absolute best, he has the potential to break the magical 25 seconds barrier. He is normally very reliable at box rise and with a wide runner directly on his outside, he should get plenty of room to muster pace and assume control as they head into the bend. With a clear class edge over his rivals, he will get every chance to score, however he will not have it all his own way as he takes on star prospect ASTON KOMUNI (4). ‘Komuni’ was backed for an absolute stack when winning on debut here in a solid 25.72sec and she then went to another level the following week with a breathtaking 25.23sec win. She went through the first marker in a scorching 6.50sec last time out and a similar performance tonight would see her settle in the top two However, there is a slight concern as she did Box 8 on that occasion, so from the awkward draw, she cannot afford to make any mistakes. BAG SECURED (7) does not have the same high profile as the two previously mentioned runners, but she has been going about her business in impressive fashion of late and she appears to be improving all the time. With deceptive early speed, I can see her settling in the top three at the bend and if the two major fancies happen to bump, she could be there to capitalise. CHILLOUT COOKIE (8) rounds out the serious chances. He has not had a lot of luck in his last two runs, however he was a strong 30.25sec winner at The Meadows prior to that and he will really power to the line, so he could be a good anchor in your exotic bets.

Selections:  1 – 4 – 7 – 8

? THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT ?
? Monday 4 October

? $3.50 Win – NOWHERE NATHE
? Shepparton ? Race 5 ? Box 1 ? 450m ⏱ 8:29pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.60 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/698026266/race/5

The Watchdog says ? : She has shown a return to form in recent weeks, and she should be able to hold a prominent spot in the run to the first turn. She hit the line quite well when placed here last time and she should find this event a little easier tonight.

? $1 Trifecta – 1 / 3,4,7,8 / 3,4,7,8 (8.33%)
? Shepparton ? Race 6 ? 450m ⏱ 8:52pm     ? Must Watch Race ?
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/698026266/race/6

The Watchdog says ? : SUBSTANTIAL (1) has the class edge and he is expected to fire fresh. ASTON KOMUNI (4) is a serious prospect and the obvious danger, however he is poorly drawn and may find trouble, so we have gone wide for second and third and hopefully we can find some value.

? $3.50 Win – ALFIE ALLIGATOR
? Shepparton ? Race 7 ? Box 1 ? 450m ⏱ 9:12pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.60 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/698026266/race/7

The Watchdog says ? : He has been racing in consistent style of late and he appears suitably drawn tonight. He meets a couple of good ones in TEA POT CREEK (2) and COMBUST (7), but he is just as talented, and the draw could be the difference maker. His box manners are solid, and he has tremendous pace once balanced, so if he can hold the top through the turn, he should prove hard to reel in.

? $1 Trifecta – 1,2 / 1,2 / 3,6,7,8 (12.50%)
? Shepparton ? Race 7 ? 450m ⏱ 9:12pm
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/698026266/race/7

The Watchdog says ? : I am very keen on ALFIE ALLIGATOR (1), however TEA POT CREEK (2) is a serious talent, and he goes well around this circuit, so we have anchored them up front as a saver, just in case ‘Alfie’ gets reeled in. We have gone wider for third in the hopes of securing some value.

? $1 Win – AUBAMEYANG     ? Lucky Longshot ?
? Shepparton ? Race 9 ? Box 2 ? 385m ⏱ 9:54pm
TAB fixed odds: $9 Win
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/698026266/race/9

The Watchdog says ? : He meets a good one in HANDSOME RHINO (8), however with ASTON PROFIT (1) expected to fire through and lead, he should be able to follow the red through at the bend and he has proven in the past that he can carve out serious time.

? RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS ?

Sunday 3 October: $16.60 (+66%)
Saturday 2 October: $0 (-100%)
Friday 1 October: $7.80 (-22%)
Thursday 30 September: $19.57 (+96%)
Wednesday 29 September: $11.60 (+16%)
Tuesday 28 September: $15.50 (+55%)
Monday 27 September: $3.73 (-63%)

Past 7 days: $74.80 for $70 invested (+7%)
Past 14 days: $131.21 for $140 invested (-6%)
Past 28 days: $200.60 for $280 invested (-28%)

? MONTH x MONTH RECORD

September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-26%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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