• Monday, 27 Sep, 2021,
  • by @WatchDogRacing

Daily Mail: Koblenz to sizzle at Shepparton

Dual G3 placegetter Koblenz (18 from 30 – 3 from 5 Box 4) will appreciate not racing against the likes of Aston Fastnet, Aston Rupee and Lala Kiwi in this evening’s Mixed 4/5 385m race at Shepparton.

The Pink Diamond Rookie Sprinter (500m) winner – victorious in 11 straight starts from late April to early July – ended a five-race streak of minor placings when triumphant by over six lengths at Cranbourne over 520m on September 8.

Luca’s Jebrynah (7 from 14) v Bees And Honey v Crackerjack Zave (4 of last 8) v Super Marli (2 of last 3) should offer a tight battle compared to Koblenz against his rivals, while Denzell Bale (2 of last 4) v Dr. Xander v Hebridean Black (2 of last 4) v So Hazy is set to be a difficult affair to predict.

Healesville Members Trophy winner Kasemi and Studley should provide a great duel, while Listed winner Zipping Zarbo (30 from 64 – 25.19sec PB) v Hazey Roy (6 from 8 Box 2 – 25.19sec PB) is a terrific clash.

Impressive debut winner Extreme Force, Mayhem Lass (2 from 2 Trk/Dst), Well Built and Aston Profit (3 from 4 Box 1) are all expected to prevail in their respective races.

Earlier at Warrnambool, The Watchdog is confident that Mr. Deeds, Oscar Octopus (2 of last 3), Crown Rhode (22.00sec PB) and veteran Sizzlin’ Sanchez will all be winning.

Finniss Flash v Hardcore Vibes (2 from 5) v Supercomputer (won last 2) is an intriguing event at Warragul, while Just Augusta v Jimmy Maker v Fenway Lights v Forcefully will be tightly contested.

Debut winners Devine Empress and I’m The Sandman are set for a great tussle, while Narcissus (3 from 4 – 2 from 2 Trk/Dst) should end the meeting in victorious fashion.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Happy 60th Leanne Glaum Mixed 4/5

KOBLENZ ? The Clock

? Shepparton ? Race 7 ? Box 4 ? 385m 9:15pm

Form ?

The Watchdog says
?: KOBLENZ (4) is one of the hottest prospects going around and he will be looking to continue the amazing run the Geall kennel are having at present. He has won a staggering 18 of 30 (60 percent) overall and although he had a recent stretch of five straight losses, he was enormous in those defeats and still managed to figure in the placings in all five. He returned to the winners list with a dazzling 29.98sec Cranbourne win last time and he comes into this nice and fresh after three weeks off. He drops back to the 385m journey, and he has proven to be a near faultless beginner to date and with another good getaway he should be able to pounce on the early lead and he can really test the semaphore board. His superstar kennelmate Ferdinand Boy currently holds the standard over this journey with a breathtaking 21.31sec run and I firmly believe that KOBLENZ (4) can equal it or go a tad faster if he spears the lids. JUST IN TIME (5) is a consistent chaser and he should get a nice cart across from the favourite in the initial stages, so he can definitely fill the quinella spot, while LOVES THE SURF (1) will hug the rails throughout and she is racing with confidence, so with a clean getaway she can figure in the minor placings. The favourite is going to be almost unbackable odds tonight, so its best to anchor him upfront in your exotic bets and fingers crossed he can carve out some serious time and he is one to watch in the feature events over the coming months.

Selections:  4 – 5 – 1 – 6

? Monday 27 September

? Warragul ? Race 7 ? Box 6 ? 460m ⏱ 4:54pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.20 Win
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : She has continued to improve with each run, and she was dominant in her brilliant 22.72sec win here last time out. In her two wins here to date, she has only really looked comfortable when she has got out wide and into the clear, so with limited pace drawn inside and a good getaway, she should get some open space as they head into the bend and a sub 26 seconds run could be on the cards. Her main rival FINNISS FLASH (4) has plenty of ability, however he does miss the kick and will be desperate for the rail, so if he gets slightly held up, ‘Vibes’ should be off and gone mid race.

? $3 Win – DR. XANDER
? Shepparton ? Race 6 ? Box 4 ? 450m ⏱ 8:54pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.70 Win
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : He has turned in some great performances in town and at Bendigo of late and he is better suited back to this distance range. There is limited early speed drawn inside, so with a clean getaway, he should be able to find the rail and he can carve out time when in the clear. HEBRIDEAN BLACK (6) is a jet when right, but he can bomb the start in his races and SO HAZY (7) is another who is unreliable at box rise, so they are expected to crowd early and that will allow Xander to zip away through the bend.

? $2 Trifecta – 4 / 1,5,6 / 1,3,5,6 (22.22%)
? Shepparton ? Race 7 ? 385m ⏱ 9:15pm     ? Must Watch Race ?
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : KOBLENZ (4) should pounce on the lead and score. The battle for second spot is quite open, so we have included LOVES THE SURF (1), JUST IN TIME (5) and CALLUM ARI (6). All three have good early burn and one of them should hold second spot through the bend. DEVIL’S DISGUISE (3) is suitably drawn and has been included for third.

? $1 Win – YOU EMBER     ? Lucky Longshot ?
? Shepparton ? Race 8 ? Box 6 ? 595m ⏱ 9:32pm
TAB fixed odds: $7.50 Win
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : He can be a little hard to follow at times, but he does possess a great turn of foot and with two vacant draws inside, he should be able to balance up and put himself into contention at the bend. There are a couple of handy ones in this event but a 25.30sec run is not beyond him and that type of run will see him go very close at nice odds.

? $1 Trifecta – 1 / 2 / 4,7 (50%)
? Shepparton ? Race 9 ? 450m ⏱ 9:54pm
Form ?

The Watchdog says
? : ZIPPING ZARBO (1) and HAZEY ROY (2) should have a great battle throughout, however the inside draw should be enough to see ‘Zarbo’ edge out ‘Roy’. FERNANDES (4) is racing well, while TOBIN FROST (7) continues to improve, so one of those should sneak into third.


Sunday 26 September: $4.10 (-59%)
Saturday 25 September: $22.10 (+121%)
Friday 24 September: $7.98 (-20%)
Thursday 23 September: $0 (-100%)
Wednesday 22 September: $3.45 (-66%)
Tuesday 21 September: $13.78 (+38%)
Monday 20 September: $5 (-50%)

Past 7 days: $56.41 for $70 invested (-19%)
Past 14 days: $99.91 for $140 invested (-29%)
Past 28 days: $178.69 for $280 invested (-36%)


August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

*Please gamble responsibly



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