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Daily Mail: Jonah eyeing Geelong Derby berth

Promising greyhounds converge on Geelong this evening with three outstanding heats for both the Geelong Derby (460m) and Geelong Oaks (460m).

Recent G2 Healesville Cup placegetter Hill Top Jonah (14 from 28 – 6 of last 7) highlights the first Geelong Derby heat, but Kinson Bale (4 of last 5) will be a formidable foe.

Nikoli Bale (2 from 2 Trk/Dst) and dual Group finalist Mr. America (10 from 19) headline the second Geelong Derby heat, while Street Riot (8 from 15) and Peaky Blazer (4 from 7) have the daunting task of facing Rebellious (12 from 17) in the third Geelong Derby heat.

G3 finalist Lala Ivory v Valeska Bale (won last 2) v Black Robin v Aston Rhone (2 of last 3) is an even first heat of the Geelong Oaks, while two-time G1 winner Qwara Bale (20 from 38 – 2 from 5 Box 4) is expected to dominate the second Geelong Oaks heat.

Osprey Rose (8 from 20), G3 finalist Highly Explosive (8 from 19 – 2 from 2 Trk/Dst) and Aston Flame (7 from 13) are considered the biggest dangers to G3 winner Lala Kiwi (12 from 28 – 2 from 4 Box 8) in the third Geelong Oaks heat.

At Healesville, Quarantined (2 from 3 Box 2) and Hartland Gus (4 from 13 Trk/Dst) save the best clash on the card for the last race.

Pink Diamond winner Diamond Ability (23.92sec PB) is expected to prevail at Bendigo, while there are many terrific battles in the second half of the programme including Soda Titan v Dr. Xander v Mahogany Jet (4 from 9 Box 8).

Blackpool Bolt v Derry Express (3 from 6 Box 5), Sharky Shark (3 of last 5) v G3 finalist Hadouken, Classy Sammy (4 from 9) v G3 finalist Hennessey (8 from 20) v Aubameyang, and Big Beaver (3 of last 4) v G3 finalist Smart As Jack (20 from 51) are all great contests.

Narcissus (2 from 3), Specialty (3 from 8) and Hamillson (3 from 7) are favoured to bolster their respective strike rates at Warragul, while Do Good Davlin (3 of last 5) v Mr. Neo (5 from 14 Trk/Dst) should be a great duel.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for 💰 The Watchdog’s $10 spend

👀 MUST-WATCH RACE: Geelong Derby Heat 1

HILL TOP JONAH 🆚 KINSON BALE

📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 6 📏 460m 8:48pm

Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538990/race/6


The Watchdog says
🎤: Punters are in for a treat tonight with three heats of the Geelong Derby and Geelong Oaks. Each heat is stacked with talent; however, I think this race is the most intriguing. HILL TOP JONAH (1) and KINSON BALE (3) are the two big guns in the event and their respective kennels are absolutely on fire at present. ‘Jonah’ had registered some very fast provincial wins and appeared to be an exciting type; however, he has gone to another level since making his debut up the straight at Healesville. He went six-of-seven and capped off a great stretch of form with a third placing in the Group 2 Healesville Cup final. In each of those six wins, he showed blistering early speed and annihilated the clock each time, so with a clean getaway tonight, he should be able to pounce on the lead and a sub 25.50sec run could be on the cards. KINSON BALE (3) like ‘Jonah’ has gone to another level in recent weeks. He had always been a little hit or miss at box rise, but he has been beginning a lot better of late and that has resulted in wins in four of his past five. There is a bit of pace drawn on either side tonight, however he has shown in his past two at Shepparton that if he gets some room to move, he is capable of great things. MIDDAY SNOOZE (6) hasn’t experienced a lot of luck of late, but he has won here previously in a blistering 25.62sec, so with an ounce of luck early, he may be able to sneak into the money. FERNANDO’S QUEST (4) and SIX SPEED MANUAL (5) are both promising types and won’t be too far away. Fingers crossed the two big guns can step away and it will be a keenly contested event.

Selections:  1 – 3 – 6 – 4

📢 THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT 📢
📅 Friday 24 September

💰 $1.50 Quaddie – 1.38% (108 combinations)
📍 Healesville 🏁 Races 5 – 8 ⏱ 12:12pm
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538991/race/5

🦵: 1,3,4
🦵 🦵: 2,6,7
🦵 🦵 🦵: 1,3,6,7
🦵 🦵 🦵 🦵: 5,7,8


The Watchdog says
🎤: BRUREE FAIRY (1) should get all the breaks in the first leg, however COMBAT MISSION (3) and MADDINGLEY MAGIC (4) have the ability to cause a minor upset. Hard to split INDY’S DREAM (2), KRAKEN SKYE (6) and BLAIR’S TULIP (7) in the second leg, while the third leg is quite open, so we have gone wide there. LIGHTNING FURY (5) is the top elect in the last leg, but we have included strong types UPRIGHT (7) and ACROSS THE SKY (8) to be safe.

💰 $2 Multi


First
🦵: Win – DIAMOND ABILITY
📍 Bendigo 🏁 Race 2 🔲 Box 1 📏 425m ⏱ 3:27pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.40 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538992/race/2


Second
🦵: Bundle Bet – 4,5
📍 Bendigo 🏁 Race 11 🔲 Boxes 4 & 5 📏 425m ⏱ 6:27pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.68 Win (Any one of the two selections to win)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538992/race/11


Third
🦵: Place – ASTRO BOY
📍 Bendigo 🏁 Race 12 🔲 Box 7 📏 425m ⏱ 6:49pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.70 Place
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538992/race/12


The Watchdog says
🎤 : DIAMOND ABILITY (1) was the most dominant heat winner, and she is drawn to make every post a winner. HENNESSEY (4) has a tremendous turn of foot, and he should be able to cross and find the rail soon after box rise. If that occurs, AUBAMEYANG (5) will get a nice cart across, and they could fight out the finish. ASTRO BOY (7) is perfectly drawn out wide and he should run a big race today.


Multi price:
$3.99

💰 $2.50 Multi


First
🦵: Bundle Bet – 2,4
📍 Warragul 🏁 Race 5 🔲 Boxes 2 & 4 📏 460m ⏱ 8:11pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.51 Win (Any one of the two selections to win)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708251683/race/5


Second
🦵: Place – MR. NEO
📍 Warragul 🏁 Race 9 🔲 Box 8 📏 460m ⏱ 9:35pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.35 Place (Top two finish required)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708251683/race/9


Third
🦵: Place – COOL CUSTOMER
📍 Warragul 🏁 Race 10 🔲 Box 2 📏 400m ⏱ 9:55pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.35 Place
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708251683/race/10


The Watchdog says
🎤 : CLASSY STRINGER (2) and MICK’S MULTI (4) both look well graded tonight and should fight out the finish in Race 5. MR. NEO (8) has dazzling pace soon after box rise, and he should be in the top two from the outset. COOL CUSTOMER (2) has been luckless of late and with a clean getaway, a forward showing is expected.


Multi price:
$2.75

💰 $1 Trifecta – 1 / 3,4,6 / 2,3,4,6,7 (8.33%)
📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 6 📏 460m ⏱ 8:48pm     👀 Must Watch Race 👀
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538990/race/6


The Watchdog says
🎤 : HILL TOP JONAH (1) is airborne at present, and he is drawn to lead throughout. KINSON BALE (3) has been huge in his past two at Shepparton and he is the clear danger. He can miss the kick, so we have taken some extra runners for second to be safe and hopefully we can secure some value.

💰 $1 Win – OSPREY ROSE     🍀 Lucky Longshot 🍀
💰 $2 Place – OSPREY ROSE
📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 9 🔲 Box 3 📏 460m ⏱ 9:48pm
TAB fixed odds: $12 Win
TAB fixed odds: $3.90 Place (Top two finish required)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538990/race/9


The Watchdog says
🎤 : I know this is a big rise in class and she is taking on some elite talent tonight, however OSPREY ROSE (3) has been enormous in her past two wins at Warrnambool over 390m and she should appreciate the slight rise in distance tonight. She has come from off the pace in her past two wins and on both occasions, she has still been able to shatter the clock. I’m expecting her to pounce on the early lead tonight and with the ability to run sub 25.70sec, they can’t afford to make too many mistakes behind her.

💰 RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS 💰

Thursday 23 September: $0 (-100%)
Wednesday 22 September: $3.45 (-66%)
Tuesday 21 September: $13.78 (+38%)
Monday 20 September: $5 (-50%)
Sunday 19 September: $9 (-10%)
Saturday 18 September: $6 (-40%)
Friday 17 September: $3.30 (-67%)

Past 7 days: $40.53 for $70 invested (-36%)
Past 14 days: $72.06 for $140 invested (-49%)
Past 28 days: $161.71 for $280 invested (-42%)

📅 MONTH x MONTH RECORD

August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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