Despite being unplaced in her last three starts, The Watchdog is confident that Qwara Bale (20 from 37 – 6 from 13 Trk/Dst) will return to her winning ways in tonight’s 525m Free For All at The Meadows.

The dual G1 heroine has enjoyed two weeks off after an inconsistent run including a fifth placing when favourite in the G3 Cranbourne Classic final and finishing sixth in the G3 525m Speed Star at The Meadows late last month.

The experienced Abelero Bale (29.83sec PB), G1 finalist Hill Top Jack (14 from 36) and dual G1 placegetter Tyler Durden (29.66sec PB) are expected to provide the main opposition.

Earlier on the card, Indy Matilda (9 from 22 – 4 from 9 Trk/Dst) v G2 winner Jax Bale (2 of last 3) v the promising Lucky Lance (8 from 22) should be a tantalising affair.

Impressive youngster Weblec Ranger (3 from 8), Fantastic Raven (4 of last 7), All Inn Billy (29.80sec PB) and Victorian Straight Track Championship finalist Dr. Ryker (3 from 6 Trk/Dst) are all fancied to bolster their respective strike rates.

The Mixed 4/5 600m race featuring G3 finalist Empress Tears (4 from 8 Box 2), Lola Coaster (2 from 5 Trk/Dst), Radek Bale and Suntory Rose should be an even contest.

At Geelong, dual G3 finalist Keep It Black (2 from 5 Box 1) v the well-credentialled Zipping Zarbo (29 from 63 – 22.21sec PB) v G3 525m Speed Star runner Chop Scotch (15 from 35) is the highlight encounter of the evening.

Dual Group finalist Well Grounded should triumph, especially after the scratching of G1 Sapphire Crown finalist Mepunga Katie.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for ? The Watchdog’s $10 spend…

? MUST-WATCH RACE: Cookes Electrical and Air Conditioning FFA

ABELERO BALE ? HILL TOP JACK ? QWARA BALE ? TYLER DURDEN

? The Meadows ? Race 6 ? 525m ⏱ 6:04pm

Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/6

The Watchdog says ?: Sprint Queen QWARA BALE (3) has been defeated in her past three, however she is expected to make a return to form today. The two-time Group 1 winner is normally very dependable at box rise and she should have enough pace to cross the inside two in the run to the first bend. She was a tad disappointing in the recent Speed Star series here, however I believe she is better suited under race conditions, and she will be carving out serious time on the arm. HILL TOP JACK (2) is an extremely underrated chaser, and he has turned in some colossal performances in recent months. He is dropping back to a more suitable journey today and with the lack of pace in the red, he should be able to find the rail early and he will get a nice sit on ‘Qwara’ for most of the journey. I do not think he can reel her in, but he will make her earn the winner’s cheque. TYLER DURDEN (4) returned to form with a dominant 29.49sec Sandown Park win and he needs to be respected, however he uncharacteristically speared the lids on that occasion, and I am not expecting him to begin like that again. He is extremely versatile and is capable of coming from off the speed, however he will need a few things to go his way in running. ABELERO BALE (1) may be the value runner, he has always done his best racing here and he is drawn to settle a little closer than normal. He is one of the few runners in the event who can carve out time when coming from off the pace, and if the two main fancies happen to bump, he could be there to strike as they turn for home.

Selections:  3 – 2 – 1 – 5

? THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT ?
? Saturday 18 September

? $3 Place – SUNSTRUCK
? The Meadows ? Race 1 ? Box 1 ? 525m ⏱ 4:40pm
TAB fixed odds: $2 Place
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/1

The Watchdog says ? : She was not in my top four originally, however with the scratching of SIR CHAPPY (2), I think she comes into contention and looks a great place bet. She was desperately unlucky in her heat and with a clear passage early, she will get every chance to atone. She copped multiple knocks in the run, but she kept charging to the line and is worth watching going forward and as she steps up in distance.

? $1 Win – KILLASHANDRA     ? Lucky Longshot ?
? $2 Win – ASTON FUTURE
? The Meadows ? Race 5 ? Boxes 4 & 6 ? 525m ⏱ 5:48pm
TAB fixed odds: $8.50 Win (Killashandra)
TAB fixed odds: $2.25 Win (Aston Future)
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/5

The Watchdog says ? : KILLASHANDRA (4) has been racing well on the provincial circuit of late and deserves a shot in town. With the vacant draws on either side, he should get every chance to balance up and settle in a prominent spot. ASTON FUTURE (6) is the leading chance in the event, he turned in a big performance here last week and with an ounce of luck in running, he will take a power of beating.

? $1 Quaddie – 5.55% (18 combinations)
? The Meadows ? Races 5 – 8 ⏱ 5:48pm     ? includes Must Watch Race ?
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/5

?: 1,4,6
? ?: 2,3
? ? ?: 1
? ? ? ?: 2,5,7

The Watchdog says ?: KILLASHANDRA (4) and ASTON FUTURE (6) are expected to excel in the first leg, however we have included the in-form RANAKO BALE (1) as a saver. QWARA BALE (3) looks the goods in the second leg, but HILL TOP JACK (2) is flying at present and needed to be included. WEBLEC RANGER (1) has the good draw and should make every post a winner in the third leg. I am very keen on EMPRESS TEARS (2) in the last leg, however RADEK BALE (5) can spear the lids at times, and I just cannot leave out MEPUNGA FELIX (7).

? $1 Trifecta – 3 / 1,2 / 1,2,4,5 (16.66%)
? The Meadows ? Race 6 ? 525m ⏱ 6:04pm     ? Must Watch Race ?
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/6

The Watchdog says ? : QWARA BALE (3) is expected to dictate the terms throughout and score. HILL TOP JACK (2) picks himself for second spot, however ABELERO BALE (1) is a powerful type and needs to be included for second. TYLER DURDEN (4) and TIBERIA BALE (5) are strong types and have been included for third.

? $2 Multi

First ?: Place – WEBLEC RANGER
? The Meadows ? Race 7 ? Box 1 ? 525m ⏱ 6:19pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.28 Place (Top two finish required)
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/7

Second ?: Bundle Bet – 2,5,7
? The Meadows ? Race 8 ? Boxes 2,5 & 7 ? 600m ⏱ 6:39pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.31 (Any one of the three selections to win)
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/8

Third ?: Place – ALL INN BILLY
? The Meadows ? Race 10 ? Box 1 ? 525m ⏱ 7:22pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.50 Place (Top two finish required)
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/10

Fourth ?: Place – RAHIM BALE
? The Meadows ? Race 11 ? Box 1 ? 525m ⏱ 7:37pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.35 Place (Top two finish required)
Form ? https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/708395967/race/11

The Watchdog says ? : We have anchored WEBLEC RANGER (1) in the quaddie, so we have taken to the top two option here to be safe. EMPRESS TEARS (2) should dominate the 600m event, but RADEK BALE (5) and MEPUNGA FELIX (7) have been included to be safe. ALL INN BILLY (1) is a jet and should be featuring in the finish in Race 10, whilst RAHIM BALE (1) continues to impress and with a wide runner drawn on his outside, he will get every chance to feature.

Multi price: $3.39

? RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS ?

Friday 17 September: $3.30 (-67%)
Thursday 16 September: $4.40 (-56%)
Wednesday 15 September: $7.20 (-28%)
Tuesday 14 September: $0 (-100%)
Monday 13 September: $13.60 (+36%)
Sunday 12 September: $6.33 (-37%)
Saturday 11 September: $0 (-100%)

Past 7 days: $34.83 for $70 invested (-50%)
Past 14 days: $74.16 for $140 invested (-47%)
Past 28 days: $186.54 for $280 invested (-33%) 

? MONTH x MONTH RECORD

August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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