After returning to form in his heat win last Friday night, Fernando Mick (2 from 4 Trk/Dst) is being tipped by The Watchdog to prevail in the $6,300 to-the-winner Hugh Emmerson Memorial final (460m) at Geelong this evening.
The G1 Maturity Classic runner-up to Qwara Bale followed his unplaced run in a G2 Healesville Cup heat by running 25.77sec last Friday evening, which was five lengths quicker than the other two Hugh Emmerson Memorial heat winners.
G3 finalist Carry On Maxwell v Aston Rhone (won last 2) v Aces Are Trumps (2 from 5 Box 8) should provide a thrilling battle, while G2 Healesville Cup finalist Aston Titan (16 from 41) v Pink Diamond winner Aussie Secret (8 of last 10) is a terrific duel.
At Bendigo, Fernandes (4 of last 5) v Soda Prince (11 from 29) v G3 finalist Gotham Duke (16 from 43) are set for a fascinating contest, while multiple Group finalist I’m Easy Boys and the promising Street Riot (7 from 14) are in action.
Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for 💰 The Watchdog’s $10 spend…
👀 MUST-WATCH RACE: Hugh Emmerson Memorial Final
RUSSIAN SUB 🆚 DERRY EXPRESS 🆚 FERNANDO MICK 🆚 LOTS OF CHATTER
📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 8 📏 460m ⏱ 9:28pm
The Watchdog says 🎤: Cracking final and although we have lost CARRY ON ANGEL (4) with the scratching, we do gain star chaser LOTS OF CHATTER (9). FERNANDO MICK (7) is expected to lead the betting and rightly so on the back of a brilliant 25.77sec heat win last week. After beginning well, he assumed control soon after box rise, and he was never really in doubt. He comes up with a favourable wide draw and with a clear run early, he should be able to takeover as they head into the bend and his opposition will have to go to another level to beat him. Star chaser LOTS OF CHATTER (9) comes into this having won 28 of 79 (35%) and he will be looking to make amends for his luckless heat performance. After missing the kick, he appeared to be crowded throughout and he never really got a crack at them. His box manners are normally better than that, so with an even getaway, he should be able to drive through into a prominent position and he can make ‘Mick’ work hard from the outset. RUSSIAN SUB (2) is another one of the leading chances, he has returned to his brilliant best in recent weeks and with a slow beginner in the red, he should be able to find the rail early and settle in a stalking position. PEAKY PUB (3) is the value runner, he has always done his best racing here and he can show slick early speed at times. He has carved out a blistering 25.57sec here previously and a similar performance tonight could see him cause a minor boil over.
Selections: 7 – 9 – 3 – 2
📢 THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT 📢
📅 Friday 17 September
💰 $1 Win – TAKE A DAISY 🍀 Lucky Longshot 🍀
💰 $1 Win – SENOR SENOR
📍 Cranbourne 🏁 Race 6 🔲 Boxes 3 & 5 📏 311m ⏱ 12:57pm
TAB fixed odds: $11 Win (Take A Daisy)
TAB fixed odds: $3.30 Win (Senor Senor)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666539020/race/6
The Watchdog says 🎤 : SENOR SENOR (5) led for a long way at Ballarat last week over 390m and he should appreciate the drop in distance today. He looks very well graded and with a clear run initially, he should be able to burn them off at the bend and score comfortably. TAKE A DAISY (3) appears to be the value runner, she has always done her best racing here and she can come out running at times, so if she times the start well, she may be able to take advantage of some trouble behind her.
💰 $2 Multi
First 🦵: Win – DIAMOND ABILITY
📍 Bendigo 🏁 Race 2 🔲 Box 4 📏 425m ⏱ 3:49pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.45 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538972/race/2
Second 🦵: Place – ALL INN DUNGEE
📍 Bendigo 🏁 Race 6 🔲 Box 4 📏 500m ⏱ 5:09pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.70 Place
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538972/race/6
Third 🦵: Win – STREET RIOT
📍 Bendigo 🏁 Race 9 🔲 Box 7 📏 425m ⏱ 6:03pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.65 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538972/race/9
The Watchdog says 🎤 : DIAMOND ABILITY (4) is highly promising and appears to have plenty on her rivals. ALL INN DUNGEE (4) powered to the line in his heat win and with some luck in running, he can charge into a top three finish again. STREET RIOT (7) is back to his best and he can light them up soon after box rise.
Multi price: $4.06
💰 $3 Win – COOL CUSTOMER
📍 Warragul 🏁 Race 3 🔲 Box 2 📏 400m ⏱ 7:32pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.10 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538971/race/3
The Watchdog says 🎤 : He sees a big drop in class today and he is armed with terrific early speed, so he should be able to assume control early and I do not think there is a runner in this event who can reel him in.
💰 $2 Multi
First 🦵: Win – CARRY ON MAXWELL
📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 6 🔲 Box 1 📏 520m ⏱ 8:47pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.90 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538970/race/6
Second 🦵: Win – BLACKPOOL FLASH
📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 9 🔲 Box 5 📏 400m ⏱ 9:47pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.65 Win
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538970/race/9
Third 🦵: Place – FIVE STAR
📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 12 🔲 Box 2 📏 680m ⏱ 10:46pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.28 Place (Top two finish required)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538970/race/12
The Watchdog says 🎤 : CARRY ON MAXWELL (1) is racing with confidence, and he is drawn to make every post a winner, whilst BLACKPOOL FLASH (5) is one of the best beginners in the game and he should have no trouble crossing and lead throughout. FIVE STAR (2) has the class edge and should be winning, however he does meet a good line-up, so we have gone with the top two finish option.
Multi price: $4.01
💰 $1 Place – PEAKY PUB
📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 8 🔲 Box 3 📏 460m ⏱ 9:28pm 👀 Must Watch Race 👀
TAB fixed odds: $3.50 Place
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538970/race/8
The Watchdog says 🎤 : He has always done his best racing here and he can lead or come from off the pace in his races. RUSSIAN SUB (2) should be able to clear the red early and bring him across and if he can tackle the first turn in the top four, he should be able to feature in the money.
💰 RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS 💰
Thursday 16 September: $4.40 (-56%)
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Tuesday 14 September: $0 (-100%)
Monday 13 September: $13.60 (+36%)
Sunday 12 September: $6.33 (-37%)
Saturday 11 September: $0 (-100%)
Friday 10 September: $0 (-100%)
Past 7 days: $31.53 for $70 invested (-55%)
Past 14 days: $81.01 for $140 invested (-42%)
Past 28 days: $183.24 for $280 invested (-35%)
📅 MONTH x MONTH RECORD
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
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June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)
NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.
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