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Daily Mail: Classy Cup heats at Cranbourne

The Metro Festival of Racing begins this afternoon with six heats of the G2 Cranbourne Cup (520m) and The Watchdog has selected G1 finalist Hill Top Jack (15 from 41 – 3 from 6 Box 1) to triumph in an open third heat.

Indy Matilda (4 of last 8), G2 winner Weblec Jet (2 from 4 Box 6), Xavien Bale and recent G2 Bendigo Cup runner-up Lots Of Chatter (30 from 84 – 5 from 9 Box 8) are all big threats to Hill Top Jack.

The reigning G2 Cranbourne Cup champion Jax Bale (2 from 3 Trk/Dst – 29.68sec PB) faces G1 Maturity Classic finalists Fernando Mick and Handsome Rhino (10 from 22 – 2 from 3 Box 8) in the first heat.

G1 placegetter Shima Classic (3 of last 5), G3 winner Lala Kiwi (14 from 32 – 3 from 3 Trk/Dst) and Geelong Derby winner Nikoli Bale highlight the second heat, while dual G3 placegetter Koblenz (21 from 34 – 5 from 7 Box 2) v Kinson Bale (5 of last 9) v Invictus Rising (12 from 29 – 3 of last 4) will battle in the fourth heat.

Two-time G1 heroine Qwara Bale (20 from 42 – 3 from 5 Box 8) plus Group finalists Aston Shine (3 of last 4) and Keep It Black headline the fifth heat, while dual G1 champion Tiggerlong Tonk (42 from 90 – 6 from 8 Box 1) is up against G3 winner Barooga Smoke (16 from 39) and G1 finalist Weblec Blazer in the sixth heat.

Three-time G2 country cup champion Ferdinand Boy (30 from 53 – 7 from 8 Box 8) is the standout chaser at Bendigo this evening, while multiple Group finalist Dream Wizard (won last 2) v Master Avenger should be a great clash.

Trending Air (won last 2) v Boom Out (9 from 19 – 2 from 3 Trk/Dst) and G3 finalist Hennessey (9 from 24) v El Cazador (won last 2) are great contests at Geelong tonight, while Notorious (4 from 8 Box 8) is the feature greyhound at Healesville this afternoon.

Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for 💰 The Watchdog’s $10 spend

👀 MUST-WATCH RACE: RAM Security Cranbourne Cup Heat 3


📍 Cranbourne 🏁 Race 7 📏 520m 4:17pm

Form 👉

The Watchdog says
🎤: It is going to be a great series and this heat features recent Group 2 Bendigo Cup runner-up LOTS OF CHATTER (8). The Graeme Jose kennel is on fire at present and this chaser’s run in the Cup final was ultra-impressive. He has raced well here previously having won three of five (60 percent) and he has gone sub 30 seconds, however from the wide draw today, he is going to need a few things to go his way. He tends to race best over this journey when he can lead and with the abundance of early speed drawn inside, he may be posted wide through the bend. WEBLEC JET (6) is the reigning Group 2 Geelong Cup champion, and he has recorded some scorching wins in recent months. With the empty draw inside, he should get enough room to balance up and I expect him to be in the top three from the outset. HILL TOP JACK (1) has come up with the good draw and he is my tip for this race. He has a good record from this draw, and he carved out a sizzling 30.07sec when winning here in June and I think he is capable of going a lot faster. If he can step on terms, he should be able to settle on the heels of RUN BABA RUN (4) and he will be very strong in the run home, so he represents value today. INDY MATILDA (2) and XAVIEN BALE (7) round out the serious chances. Both can be a little hit or miss early but are capable of carving out breathtaking sectionals when in the clear.

Selections:  1 – 6 – 2 – 7

📅 Friday 22 October

💰 $1 Win – HILL TOP JACK     🍀 Lucky Longshot 🍀
📍 Cranbourne 🏁 Race 7 🔲 Box 1 📏 520m ⏱ 4:17pm     👀 Must Watch Race 👀
TAB fixed odds: $7 Win
Form 👉

The Watchdog says
🎤 : He has come up with the gun draw today and if he can step well, he should be able to hold a top two spot through the bend and he will be very strong in the run home. He is extremely underrated, and he is well over the odds today.

💰 $4 Multi

🦵: Win – KOBLENZ
📍 Cranbourne 🏁 Race 8 🔲 Box 2 📏 520m ⏱ 4:37pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.50 Win
Form 👉

📍 Bendigo 🏁 Race 6 🔲 Box 1 📏 425m ⏱ 8:12pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.90 Win
Form 👉 

📍 Bendigo 🏁 Race 8 🔲 Box 8 📏 425m ⏱ 8:54pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.25 Win
Form 👉

The Watchdog says
🎤 : INVICTUS RISING (7) toppled him last week, but KOBLENZ (2) looks better suited today and I am expecting him to lead from go to whoa. JEN JUMBO PRAWN (1) was super impressive when narrowly beaten at Bendigo last Saturday night and she can go one better tonight. FERDINAND BOY (8) is all class and should be scoring at the short odds.

Multi price:

💰 $5 Win – HENNESSEY
📍 Geelong 🏁 Race 8 🔲 Box 6 📏 460m ⏱ 9:27pm
TAB fixed odds: $2.20 Win
Form 👉

The Watchdog says
🎤 : He was desperately unlucky here last Friday night, and I am expecting him to atone this evening. There is not a lot of early speed drawn inside, so with an even getaway, he should be able to burn across and assume control and he has proven to be very hard to get past when in the clear. EL CAZADOR (8) is flying at present, but I think he will be giving away a decent head start, so he may not be able to bridge the gap.


Thursday 21 October: $0 (-100%)
Wednesday 20 October: $0 (-100%)
Tuesday 19 October: $0 (-100%)
Monday 18 October: $15.40 (+54%)
Sunday 17 October: $19.55 (+96%)
Saturday 16 October: $10.20 (+2%)
Friday 15 October: $0 (-100%)

Past 7 days: $45.15 for $70 invested (-36%)
Past 14 days: $119.73 for $140 invested (-14%)
Past 28 days: $258.11 for $280 invested (-8%)


September 2021: $220.69 for $300 (-26%)
August 2021: $262.63 for $310 (-15%)
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)

NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.

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