Form expert The Watchdog agrees that Group 1 RSN Sandown Cup favourite Zack Monelli is the stayer to beat on Thursday night but believes he’s over the odds at his current TAB quote of $2.60 and doesn’t expect the price to last.
The star West Australian frontrunner, based with Victorian trainer Lyn Smith for his Cup campaign, has retained favouritism for the world’s premier distance event despite a shock heat defeat at $1.20.
The Watchdog is prepared to forgive Zack Monelli’s second placing to Victorian staying newcomer Tyler Durden after drawing perfectly in box one.
“He’s going to lead; they’re going to have to catch him and he’s going to be running time in front. Everything points to him,” The Watchdog said.
“He was probably a little bit disappointing last week, but I reckon it was purely for the fact it was his second run over the ‘700’. He absolutely burned himself early the week before and I’m just putting it down to being a little bit flat.
“I think this week he’ll come up a lot better. Lyn Smith will have him cherry ripe and the $2.60 available at the moment is just crazy. I think he’ll be odds-on come race-time.”
The Watchdog believes two-time G1 winner Stanley Road from NSW, the $3.50 second elect could be vulnerable from box six and rates exciting distance prospect Zipping Rambo (Box 4) at $5 as the main threat to the favourite.
While Zipping Rambo has been beaten in his only two 715m starts since stepping up from a stunning run of middle-distance form, The Watchdog likes what he’s seen in second placings to G1 winners Stanley Road and Zack Monelli.
“I think the value is definitely Zipping Rambo,” The Watchdog said.
“His two 715m runs have been spectacular and he’s actually been hitting the line pretty well. On Thursday night if he happens to step, he’ll be up outside Zack Monelli in that run to the first turn and he’s getting pretty strong so he could cause an upset.”
It comes as no surprise that Zack Monelli holds the key to the Watchdog’s Sandown Cup betting strategy, standing him out in a Trifecta and Exacta, while adding Zipping Rambo to a second Exacta, looking for value.
