Form expert The Watchdog agrees that Group 1 RSN Sandown Cup favourite Zack Monelli is the stayer to beat on Thursday night but believes he’s over the odds at his current TAB quote of $2.60 and doesn’t expect the price to last.
The star West Australian frontrunner, based with Victorian trainer Lyn Smith for his Cup campaign, has retained favouritism for the world’s premier distance event despite a shock heat defeat at $1.20.
The Watchdog is prepared to forgive Zack Monelli’s second placing to Victorian staying newcomer Tyler Durden after drawing perfectly in box one.
“He’s going to lead; they’re going to have to catch him and he’s going to be running time in front. Everything points to him,” The Watchdog said.
“He was probably a little bit disappointing last week, but I reckon it was purely for the fact it was his second run over the ‘700’. He absolutely burned himself early the week before and I’m just putting it down to being a little bit flat.
“I think this week he’ll come up a lot better. Lyn Smith will have him cherry ripe and the $2.60 available at the moment is just crazy. I think he’ll be odds-on come race-time.”
The Watchdog believes two-time G1 winner Stanley Road from NSW, the $3.50 second elect could be vulnerable from box six and rates exciting distance prospect Zipping Rambo (Box 4) at $5 as the main threat to the favourite.
While Zipping Rambo has been beaten in his only two 715m starts since stepping up from a stunning run of middle-distance form, The Watchdog likes what he’s seen in second placings to G1 winners Stanley Road and Zack Monelli.
“I think the value is definitely Zipping Rambo,” The Watchdog said.
“His two 715m runs have been spectacular and he’s actually been hitting the line pretty well. On Thursday night if he happens to step, he’ll be up outside Zack Monelli in that run to the first turn and he’s getting pretty strong so he could cause an upset.”
It comes as no surprise that Zack Monelli holds the key to the Watchdog’s Sandown Cup betting strategy, standing him out in a Trifecta and Exacta, while adding Zipping Rambo to a second Exacta, looking for value.
The Watchdog’s $20 Sandown Cup spend
- $10 Trifecta: 1 / 345 / 234567 (66.66%)
- $4 Exacta 1 / 2,3,4,5 (100%)
- $6 Exactas 1,4 / 1,3,4,5 (100%)
$250,000 Group 1 RSN Sandown Cup Final (715m)
Thursday, 27 May, 8.28pm
$175,000 (1st), $50,000 (2nd), $25,000 (3rd)
- ZACK MONELLI (Lyn Smith, Nambrok VIC)
- WE THE PEOPLE (Brooke Ennis, Lara VIC)
- SIR TRUCULENT (Walter Harkins, Reynella SA)
- ZIPPING RAMBO (Mark Delbridge, Balliang VIC)
- MAGGIE MOO MOO (Darren Johnstone, Harrisville QLD)
- STANLEY ROAD (Mark Gatt, Thirlmere NSW)
- TYLER DURDEN (Jeffrey Britton, Anakie VIC)
- KENNY THE BRUTE (Kelvyn Greenough, Pearcedale VIC)
- HANK THE HUSTLER (Jeffrey Britton, Anakie VIC)
- HERE’S TEARS (Robert Britton, Lara VIC)
(fastest to slowest)
- 41.74sec Tyler Durden
- 41.76sec Kenny The Brute
- 41.77sec Stanley Road
- 41.97sec Maggie Moo Moo
Get your tickets to the Premier Punters Club on RSN Sandown Cup night featuring a $10,000 starting pool! Contact the club to find out more.
HOW TO FOLLOW THE ACTION
- Comprehensive coverage on Sky Racing Active with Jason Adams, Mark Ohlmus & Gareth Hall from 5.45pm, which will also be streamed via The Watchdog app.
- Watch every race LIVE and FREE via watchdog.grv.org.au or on Sky Racing.
- RSN Racing and Sport (927 AM) audio & race-by-race market updates with Trent Langskaill
- ‘The Lids Fly’ with Miles Pfitzner, Mitch Ebeyer & The Watchdog 6-10pm on SEN Track (1593 AM)
- Live cross to Trent Langskaill at Sandown on 1116 SEN
- Extensive behind-the-scenes Twitter coverage with ‘@WatchDogRacing’ & ‘@SandownDogs’
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