Shima Shine is the main TAB Melbourne Cup contender with the most riding on tomorrow’s box draw, according to The Watchdog.
Five superstar greyhounds dominate the market following last night’s heats, with the box draw to be conducted on Sunday morning on 7TWO’s popular greyhound racing show ‘Thrill of the Chase’.
“I know Shima Shine is an absolute freak and can run ridiculous times but he’s the type of greyhound that needs room to move after boxrise, and there’s a lot of speed in this race,” The Watchdog warned punters on RSN Carnival this morning.
“If he draws directly inside a greyhound with early speed his chances are shot.”
The Watchdog has provided an insight into which greyhounds provide the best value in TAB’s pre-box draw market, which could lead to a flurry of money prior to the draw.
The expert form analyst says Tiggerlong Tonk and Simon Told Helen are the greyhounds least reliant on the box draw.
With $630,000 up for grabs including a whopping $435,000 first prize, it promises to be an emotion-charged TAB Melbourne Cup box draw, which will be aired live on ‘Thrill of the Chase’ from 10am Sunday on 7TWO, via The Watchdog app or at watchdog.grv.org.au
TIGGERLONG TONK – $3.50
The Watchdog says: “Has won multiple races from every draw and is the most reliable beginner of the eight finalists. Racing in career best form and on sectionals, he should settle in the first two. Seems to time the start to perfection regularly but would still prefer a rails draw.”
Box draw importance rating: 1/10 Ideal box: 1 Worst box: 7 Heat time: 29.16sec
SHIMA SHINE – $3.60
The Watchdog says: “Gifted chaser and one out is probably the fastest in the race, however his box manners can let him down and when crowded he won’t accelerate which is his biggest weapon. This race has so much early pace in it and he needs to draw outside the main fancies.”
Box draw importance rating: 8/10 Ideal box: 8 Worst box: 1 Heat time: 29.19sec
HARD STYLE RICO – $4.40
The Watchdog says: “Takes a few strides to hit his straps but he does explode after the first 30m or so. It’s crucial that he does not have a fast beginner drawn directly outside of him as that won’t allow him to show his devastating acceleration.”
Box draw importance rating: 5/10 Ideal box: 8 Worst box: 4 Heat time: 29.17sec
SIMON TOLD HELEN – $4.60
The Watchdog says: “Box five is the only draw he has not won from, however he has only had the one attempt from that draw. Back to his brilliant best, and an inside draw should see him explode to the lead. In a race with so many front runners, the leader at the first bend should take home the $435,000 winner’s cheque. Boasts unrivalled pace from the 20m to 250m mark, meaning the box draw is not crucial to his chances.”
Box draw importance rating: 2/10 Ideal box: 1 Worst box: 5 Heat time: 29.26sec
TOMMY SHELBY – $5.00
The Watchdog says: “Can handle any draw, however ideally he would like to be drawn on the outside of Simon Told Helen, as that will allow him to get a nice cart across to the rail. Has explosive speed after 40m and as long as there is minimal speed on his direct outside, he will put himself into contention at the first bend.”
Box draw importance rating: 6/10 Ideal box: 3 Worst box: 6 Heat time: 29.21sec
LUCY’S MILO – $41
The Watchdog says: “Slow early and moves directly left soon after box rise. Has great mustering speed but does not really hit full stride until he can find the paint, and any draw outside of three will see him lose too much ground in the initial stages.”
Box draw importance rating: 10/10 Ideal box: 1 Worst box: 8 Heat time: 29.57sec
TOUGH TEARS – $81
The Watchdog says: “Needs to find the early lead and, if he does, will need plenty of trouble behind him at the first bend to have any chance. Does not have enough speed to cross from the outside, so it is crucial that he comes up with the rails draw.”
Box draw importance rating: 10/10 Ideal box: 1 Worst box: 8 Heat time: 29.63sec
ZIPPING SULLIVAN – $81
The Watchdog says: “Began perfectly in his heat and still only went 5.06 to the first mark. From any other draw than the red, he will really struggle to cross initially and his chances are reliant on him finding the early lead. An inside draw can see him settle in the top three and run a place at big odds.”
Box draw importance rating: 10/10 Ideal box: 1 Worst box: 8 Heat time: 29.70sec
ARIZONA EYES – $31
The Watchdog says: “Relying on a scratching to gain a run but turned in a huge effort in his heat and from an inside draw he may settle a little closer to the speed. If he gains a start he’ll be the only run-on chaser in the race. A wide draw would see him posted too far back and losing too much ground mid-race.”
Box draw importance rating: 3/10 Ideal box: 1 Worst box: 8 Heat time: 29.28sec
SHORT PORK – $31
The Watchdog says: “Was impressive in his heat but would need an inside draw to have any chance in the final. Does not have the same early zip as most of the finalists and unless he draws near the rail he is likely to find bother at the first bend.”
Box draw importance rating: 8/10 Ideal box: 1 Worst box: 5 Heat time: 29.33sec
*odds accurate at 6pm on Saturday 21 November (prior to box draw)
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