The Watchdog has taken a close look at Wednesday night’s 525m Speed Star at The Meadows, providing extensive analysis on the four head-to-head matches.

Check it out below…

Click HERE for TAB’s Head-to-Head markets

MATCH RACE 1, 7.23pm

CHOP SCOTCH $1.62 V PADDY WANTS PATS $2.30

The Watchdog says: “Very even matchup as the betting suggests, but I am very keen on Paddy Wants Pats. Chop Scotch qualified with a dominant 29.87sec win here last week and a repeat of that would see him go close again. However, he is likely to cop a lot more pressure in the middle stages and ‘Paddy’ might be able to out-grind him in the closing stages. The box draw sees ‘Scotch’ have the edge, but I just don’t think he is strong enough over this journey in a high pressure event.”

Prediction: Paddy Wants Pats by 2 lengths in 29.80sec

MATCH RACE 2, 7.32pm

LALA KIWI $2.45 V TIGGERLONG TONK $1.55

The Watchdog says: “I have always had a huge opinion of Lala Kiwi and she elevated to another level when capturing the Group 3 Cranbourne Classic last week. I think she is ready to take on the champ Tiggerlong Tonk. ‘Tonk’ just continues to produce at the top level and his past two wins have been dominant. I expect him to begin well, and he tends to stay wide through the corner, so both runners should gain a clear passage throughout. ‘Tonk’ should post a brilliant 29.75sec, however I don’t think that will be enough for him to score. ‘Lala’ owns a slick 29.84sec PB, however I believe she can get down to around the 29.65sec mark now and that may see her prove too strong in the closing stages.”

Prediction: Lala Kiwi by 1.5 lengths in 29.65sec

MATCH RACE 3, 7.42pm

ASTON RUPEE $1.18 V WEBLEC BLAZER $4.80

The Watchdog says: “Aston Rupee is the reigning Speed Star champ from the Sandown Park edition, and I still believe he is the fastest chaser on the planet. With that being said, I don’t think he is an absolute lock in this matchup. Weblec Blazer has been beaten in his past two, however he did record a scintillating 29.65sec win here in July and that wasn’t a fluke as he recorded a blistering 29.71sec win here in June. He is on the up and with the ability to go around 5.10sec to the first marker, he can cause an upset if ‘Rupee’ happens to make a mistake at box rise. I do think Rupee will win the match up, however I don’t want to be taking $1.18, so Weblec Blazer could be worth a nibble at $4.80.”

Prediction: Aston Rupee by 1.5 lengths in 29.50sec

MATCH RACE 4, 7.52pm

ASTON CADE $11 V QWARA BALE $1.04

The Watchdog says: “Qwara Bale is unbackable in this matchup and it’s hard to see her not winning. 12 months ago, Aston Cade would have been a huge chance in this event, however he is probably four lengths off his best and ‘Qwara’ is likely to light him up as they negotiate the first turn. ‘Qwara’ is expected to win this match-up with ease, however I don’t think she can win the overall. She is a marvellous chaser, but I believe a 29.70sec run is the best she can get down to and I believe that won’t quite be enough.”

Prediction: Qwara Bale by 3 lengths in 29.70sec

Final word:
“I expect Aston Rupee to step well and dictate terms throughout, and if that happens, a 29.50sec run is on the cards. That would almost certainly see him secure his second Speed Star Crown. His opponent is an exciting prospect and although likely to be beaten, he can fill the quinella spot when finishing on the heels of ‘Rupee’. Tiggerlong Tonk is an amazing chaser and must be respected, however I believe he will have his work cut out trying to secure his match-up. I think he can sneak into a place at best.”

Tips:
5 Aston Rupee
6 Weblec Blazer
4 Tiggerlong Tonk
3 Lala Kiwi

The Watchdog’s suggested $20 spend:

$10 Head-to-Head Multi
Paddy Wants Pats to defeat Chop Scotch /
Lala Kiwi to defeat Tiggerlong Tonk
Multi price: $5.04

$10 Head-to-Head
Weblec Blazer to defeat Aston Rupee
Price: $4.80

Click HERE for TAB’s Head-to-Head markets

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