The ‘Australian Cup Carnival’ enters Week 2 with eight sensational heats of the Group 1 TAB Australian Cup (525m) and three heats of the Group 1 Fanta Bale Super Stayers (725m).
The ‘legendary’ Australian Cup series has attracted a plethora of sprint stars – including dual G1 winners Shima Shine (Vic) and Wow (NSW) – along with ‘people’s dog’ Tommy Shelby (WA), who won the G1 Hobart Thousand.
Meanwhile, the Fanta Bale Super Stayers series sees Here’s Tears – a younger full-brother of retired staying king and six-time G1 winner Tornado Tears – attempting back-to-back wins. And let’s not forget ‘escape’ artist Houdini Boy, who ‘unlocked’ last week’s G1 Zoom Top.
But let’s start with form expert The Watchdog’s examination of the Australian Cup heats, from which he’s pinpointed seven ‘best value’ bets in TABs ‘All In’ market from the cavalcade of champions.
Check out TAB’s ‘All In’ odds for every AUSTRALIAN CUP contender HERE
The first one of those is eight-time G1 finalist Tiggerlong Tonk at $10 (Heat 1 – Race 4, Box 3).
“There’s no speed at all in box one and two. Last week in the Temlee, he was about a quarter of a length from crossing his kennelmate Yozo Bale and if he does get across, he wins that G1 final comfortably.
“On Saturday night, he’ll be looking to make amends and if he steps on terms, he’ll have no trouble crossing the inside division. He’s the ultimate professional… I feel very comfortable with him.”
And The Watchdog also has a high regard for Do It (Heat 6 – Race 9, Box 2).
“He’s a phenomenal talent. He’s gone 29.69sec there previously. So, from the inside, he should get every chance to qualify… He’s paying $26, which is a huge spoil.
“And in the same race we have Mr. Fix It in box six. He’s got a 29.93sec PB and can probably get down to the 29.75sec mark. That’s more than enough to win a heat like this, and $101 is a huge over.”
The next one down for The Watchdog is Qwara Bale (Heat 5 – Race 8, Box 4), who he says, “probably wouldn’t have been in many punters thoughts”.
“She’s won five of seven, including a 29.97sec win at The Meadows in January and I think she’s better now. I know she’s $151, but she has amazing speed once she hits the ground… She’s my blowout chance for the series.”
The Watchdog then looked towards Heat 7 and Run Baba Run (Race 10, Box 6).
“She’s a bit of a giant-killer this one. She comes up in a race that probably suits her because there’s not a whole lot of early speed.
“And she probably only has to run 29.90sec to probably steal this race. $201 is enormous value… You’ve got to have something on her.”
“I know we’ve put Tiggerlong Tonk as one of our best value bets, but Junk Food Junkie ($301) has tremendous early speed, goes well at The Meadows and is as honest as they come.
“And I think Aston Silk ($51) can get across and run a huge race at huge odds.”
Fanta Bale Super Stayers
Moving on to the Fanta Bale Super Stayers heats and The Watchdog sees plenty of value in four runners.
Unlike the Australian Cup Heats – where only the winners earn a place in the final – it’s a case of the first two placegetters and two fastest thirds which will make it through to the Super Stayers Final.
“I think the first value runner appears to be Zack Monelli (Heat 3 – Race 3, Box 3). He was huge in the Zoom Top last week. The sectionals he carved out were just ridiculous, especially the middle section. Look, he might be picked off late… He should qualify and $15 (win) and $3.80 to run a place is enormous value.”
SA star Sir Truculent (Heat 2 – Race 2, Box 2) is the second value bet, according to The Watchdog.
“He’s currently at $26… I know his record at The Meadows isn’t great, but he’s going to get every chance to qualify from box two.”
Check out TAB’s ‘All In’ odds for every FANTA BALE SUPER STAYERS contender HERE
The Watchdog added, “then you look at Jayville Slick” (Heat 3 – Race 3, Box 8).
“He comes up against a quality heat, up against Houdini Boy and Zack Monelli. He’s been tremendous since returning from a spell… He’s ready to tackle the 700 metres now. He’ll run a big race… At $51, I think that’s great value.”
The last of The Watchdog’s value bets is Run Like Jess (Heat 2 – Race 2, Box 8).
“I expect him to be probably up in the top two early. His win at Wentworth Park, running 41.91sec, was fantastic. He beat Stanley Road on that occasion, and at The Meadows he’s probably better suited. At the moment, he’s at $51 and looks a really good bet.”
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