The Watchdog says “the run to the first turn is going to be very crucial” in the Group 1 TAB Australian Cup final at The Meadows this Saturday night.

Consequently, the form guru thinks the inside division is going to play a major role in the $300,000 to-the-winner event.

Click HERE  for the latest TAB Australian Cup Final market

“Orlando (a $19 chance in the final) was really impressive last week. A repeat of that off the ‘red’ (Box 1) will probably see him ‘hit the scoreboard’.”

The Watchdog is equally buoyant about $7.50 chance Daph’s Ascend (Box 2).

“She’s ultra-consistent, loves the rails and loves The Meadows.”

And the expert form analyst says, “box three is going to suit ($3.50 chance) Zippy Tesla”.

“The dog is absolutely flying at present. And he has an affinity with The Meadows with a 29.60sec PB.”

“Paddy Wants Pats is an amazing chaser and jumps reliably all the time.”

– THE WATCHDOG

However, The Watchdog is dubious about fastest heat winner and race favourite Lala Kiwi (Box 4).

“She was Group 1 placed in the Melbourne Cup and she’s been a tremendous chaser. The only concern with her is she can be a little ‘hit and miss’ early.

“She’s going to need a lot of things to go her way. But $3.10 is under the odds for mine.”

The Watchdog believes Immunity (Box 5) is also under the odds at $5.

“She’s going to be looking for the ‘fence’ and tends to do her best racing from inside draws. She can’t afford to make any mistakes at box rise.”

The Watchdog’s $20 spend

$10 on Paddy Wants Pats to win at $7.50
$6 Trifecta on 3,6 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,4,6,8 (25% return)
$4 Exacta on 3,6 / 1,2,3,6 (66.66% return)

But it’s Paddy Wants Pats (Box 6) which has piqued The Watchdog’s interest.

“He’s an amazing chaser and jumps reliably all the time. He’s won his last three in tremendous fashion and $7.50 is great value.”

The Watchdog adds Titan Blazer (Box 8), at $13, is “an interesting runner”.

“He’s another one which would have preferred a rails draw. He continues to rise to each occasion and has a really good turn of foot.”

However, in his final analysis, The Watchdog expects Paddy Wants Pats to “get the run across”.

Group 1 TAB AUSTRALIAN CUP FINAL (525m)
The Meadows, Saturday 9:03pm
First prize $300,000
1 ORLANDO (Lee Moore, Bagshot VIC)
2 DAPH’S ASCEND (Andrea Dailly, Anakie VIC)
3 ZIPPY TESLA (Andrea Dailly, Anakie VIC) ?
4 LALA KIWI (Andrea Dailly, Anakie VIC)
5 IMMUNITY (Jason Thompson, Pearcedale VIC)
6 PADDY WANTS PATS (Kelly Bravo, Freshwater Creek VIC)
7 GYPSY BUN (Andrea Dailly, Anakie VIC)
8 TITAN BLAZER (Daniel Gibbons, Avalon VIC)
Reserves
9 ASTON RUPEE   SCRATCHED
10 RICCARTON RICK   SCRATCHED

WATCH: Western Districts Derby winner PADDY WANTS PATS (5) won his heat of the Group 1 TAB Australian Cup (525m) in 29.87 seconds at The Meadows on February 19.     Results

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