Debate rages across racing circles about who will take out tonight’s $1.65M Phoenix at The Meadows – but many of these stars are on the backfoot.

Six of the eight runners would be judged as getting away poorly in their last start and they’ve got to turn it around to have any chance of claiming the $1 million to-the-winner Phoenix.

The first 20 metres will be crucial – as it always is.

Here’s an insight as to how each contender began in their most recent outing (at either Sandown Park or The Meadows with Isolynx technology installed).

For many of them most of these numbers aren’t considered normal, they’re better than that and it fuels the ‘what if’ discussion.

But in this caper we know recent form is most important.

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How they performed early:

How they performed late:

1 PASS THE BUCK

GREAT CHASE FINAL (Oct 18) – Box 3
Time to 20m: 2.04 seconds
Speed at 50m: 61.05 KP/H
Speed at finish: 57.06 KP/H

He flew out in the Great Chase final before finding drama for the remainder of the race – we should ignore his run home. On his recent return to racing at Bendigo he began poorly but recovered with force to win easily. Box 1 is great

but he’s got to use it, he must bring his Great Chase manners as opposed to what we saw at Bendigo.

2 HECTOR FAWLEY

MELBOURNE CUP HEAT (Nov 25) – Box 8
Time to 20m: 2.25 seconds
Speed at 50m: 60.90 KP/H
Speed at finish: 62.01 KP/H

He’s the one runner in the race where his getaway matters least. He’s a powerhouse and although with a 20m time in his Cup heat that’s comparable to others, it’s standard for him, unlike the sharper types he faces who made a blue. He’ll be beaten for pace in the first 50m but at that point his draw becomes crucial.

He trialled an unbelievable 22.06 (8.29) over 400m at Geelong on Tuesday. And as listed above his last 100m and speed of 62.01 KP/H at the finish is head and shoulders above the others. He will be snowballing into the race.

3 ALPHA ZULU

MELBOURNE CUP HEAT (Nov 25) – Box 8
Time to 20m: 2.38 seconds
Speed at 50m: 61.16 KP/H
Speed at finish: 58.49 KP/H

He needs to turn around the trend. He began in rapid fashion through September and October but has since been tardy in the Topgun, Shootout and his Cup heat. This will be the

freshest he’s been going into a race for a while – which historically has been a key for trainers to improve box habits ahead of a major.

4 POSTMAN PAT

MELBOURNE CUP HEAT (Nov 25) – Box 8
Time to 20m: 2.38 seconds
Speed at 50m: 61.16 KP/H
Speed at finish: 58.49 KP/H

He’s a sleeping giant. Having had just three runs since the Million Dollar Chase final the hype has dried up but his ability isn’t going anywhere. His box and speed map in his Cup heat looked horrible and played out that way, from 20m to

the post he was equal fastest with Schillaci on a star studded card. Compared to other Phoenix contenders, none carried the speed he did at 50m.

5 SCHILLACI

MELBOURNE CUP HEAT (Nov 25) – Box 7
Time to 20m: 2.27 seconds
Speed at 50m: 61.60 KP/H
Speed at finish: 57.63 KP/H

He isn’t giving the impression that he’s going to turn his box manners around. Since knocking his head on the box face in the Topgun, and producing a 20m time of 2.21, he’s set 2.26 in a Cup Prelude and 2.27 in a Cup heat. His 20-50m

phase is still elite but his current 20m times are not competitive to be upfront in a Phoenix. He did trial at The Meadows on Monday – 5.15 and 17.71 before finishing on the lure.

6 WOW SHE’S FAST

MELBOURNE CUP HEAT (Nov 25) – Box 2
Time to 20m: 2.17 seconds
Speed at 50m: 60.35 KP/H
Speed at finish: 59.16 KP/H

She may have lost that early burn to settle up front. While she began quite well in her Cup heat, her phase after that suggests she’s going to be losing ground – her speed at 50m is the slowest of the field. From the draw it’s going to

be really tough. She trialled a freakish 29.49 (5.12, 17.58) at The Meadows last week.

7 BIG ENERGY

MELBOURNE CUP FINAL (Dec 2) – Box 4
Time to 20m: 2.23 seconds
Speed at 50m: 61.10 KP/H
Speed at finish: 59.74 KP/H

He looks to be the big winner of all this. With some sort of doubt surrounding most of them he’s the one in-form and beginning well, aside from the Cup final. That hiccup saw a 20m time of 2.23 which is tardy, but his 20-50m phase is the best of this Phoenix field. He set 2.09 in his

Cup heat – the fastest of the night. Adding to his advantage is greyhounds either side of him with limited acceleration. He trialled 29.61 (5.09, 17.65) at The Meadows last week.

8 JAY IS JAY

MELBOURNE CUP HEAT (Nov 25) – Box 4
Time to 20m: 2.25 seconds
Speed at 50m: 61.90kph
Speed at finish: 61.90 KP/H

He met a very similar challenge in the Topgun which he handled beautifully and finished runner-up. Again he’s relying on a path to be available around the field – he doesn’t have the speed to take them on early. His 20m time in his Cup heat of 2.25 is ordinary and his 20-50m

phase was also slower than his opposition in the Pheonix. He hand slipped trialled at The Meadows earlier in the week in a handy 24.74 (12.76, 11.98).

WHO WINS?

By the numbers Big Energy looks to have every chance to balance up and get going. Like we saw in the Shootout and his Melbourne Cup heat, when he’s given room to put on a show, he will.

RELATED: WHY YOU SHOULD ATTEND THE PHOENIX

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