Dual G1 winner Qwara Bale (20 from 34 – 4 of last 5) is eyeing another feature race triumph in tonight’s $25,000 to-the-winner G3 Cranbourne Classic final after setting the time standard (29.90sec) in last week’s heats.
Despite Qwara Bale’s imposing record, The Watchdog has selected Koblenz (17 from 26 – 2 from 3 Box 7) to claim his first Group race success after being nabbed by Aston Fastnet – scratched from this evening’s final – in the G3 Warragul St Leger final two weeks ago.
St Leger placegetter Shima Classic (11 from 29 – 4 from 4 Box 8) won her Cranbourne Classic heat and is eyeing her first Group race victory at her fifth attempt.
Earlier on the card, Major Sacrifice is looking to claim his fifth win from his last seven races, while short course specialists Heidi (11 from 33 Trk/Dst) and Coolant (13 from 22 – 17.53sec PB) clash.
Three-time Group finalist Mepunga Warrior (2 from 3 Trk/Dst) v G3 Launching Pad winner Kuro Kismet (14 from 36) should be another fascinating clash along with Collinda Beast (10 from 21) v Victorian Sprint finalist Fabriola Zad.
Here’s an extensive analysis of today’s Must Watch Race, and be sure to scroll down further for 💰 The Watchdog’s $10 spend…
👀 MUST-WATCH RACE: Group 3 Cranbourne Classic Final
QWARA BALE 🆚 LALA KIWI 🆚 KOBLENZ 🆚 SHIMA CLASSIC
📍 Cranbourne 🏁 Race 8 📏 520m ⏱ 6:26pm
The Watchdog says 🎤: It’s a shame ASTON FASTNET (3) is scratched; however, we still get to see a star-studded field go into battle and any one of the eight runners can get the cash. QWARA BALE (1) is the current sprint Queen of the Track, and she was the fastest heat winner last week in a dazzling 29.90sec. She has speared the lids in her past five runs and from the inside draw tonight, she should get every chance to put herself into contention and could add another feature event to her bulging CV. LALA KIWI (4) is one of my favourite chasers and she was just brilliant in her heat win last week, however she hasn’t fared too well with the box draw and can’t afford to make any mistakes at box rise tonight. KOBLENZ (7) is one of the hottest prospects in the land and, although beaten in his heat, he was far from disgraced. He only ran 5.38sec to the first marker in his heat and had to work overtime for the first 200m, so he was entitled to get a little tired in the run home. With a clean getaway, I think he can get down to the 5.32sec mark, and that would likely see him cross and lead at the first bend and give them something to catch. SHIMA CLASSIC (8) rounds out the big guns and she surprisingly was able to break the 30 seconds barrier last week. She is one of the fastest chasers in the land over 450m, however she does get very tired in the closing stages and, with the abundance of pace drawn on the inside, she may have trouble finding the lead which could make her task of winning an uphill battle. HILL TOP JACK (5) has been brilliant in his three runs here and represents some value, whilst reserve runner PLAN AHEAD (9) should be able to find the rail early on and can sneak into a place at nice odds. This really is an elite final and there should be pressure for the entire 520m journey.
Selections: 7 – 1 – 5 – 9
📢 THE WATCHDOG’S $10 INVESTMENT 📢
📅 Saturday 21 August
💰 $4 Multi
First 🦵: Bundle Bet – 1,3,5,8
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 2 🔲 Boxes 1,3,5,8 📏 525m ⏱ 4:32pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.55 Win (Any one of the four selections to win)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538487/race/2
Second 🦵: Bundle Bet – 4,7
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 4 🔲 Boxes 4,7 📏 525m ⏱ 5:09pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.26 Win (Any one of the two selections to win)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538487/race/4
Third 🦵: Bundle Bet – 1,2,5,8
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 5 🔲 Boxes 1,2,5,8 📏 525m ⏱ 5:25pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.60 Win (Any one of the four selections to win)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538487/race/5
Fourth 🦵: Bundle Bet – 1,2,3,4,5
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 6 🔲 Boxes 1,2,3,4,5 📏 600m ⏱ 5:42pm
TAB fixed odds: $1.30 Win (Any one of the five selections to win)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538487/race/6
The Watchdog says 🎤 : I’m expecting RAHIM BALE (1) and PALESA BALE (5) to dominate Race 2, however we have thrown in the capable SMOKEY CAPE (3) and the strong SIR CHAMP (8) to be safe. MR. FIX IT (7) should be able to cross and lead throughout in Race 4, but we have included NIHARI BALE (4) as he has turned in some great performances of late and will appreciate the smaller line-up. WHISTLING BULLET (5) looks the goods in Race 5, but we have thrown in some other on-speed runners to be safe. KURO KISMET (8) is a beast and is well supported in Race 6, however I think he may get pushed too wide through the first turn, so we have taken the inside division as I expect them to hold the top through the corner and that may be the difference.
Multi price: $4.06
💰 $2 Win – XAVIEN BALE
💰 $1 Win – KINSON BALE
📍 The Meadows 🏁 Race 3 🔲 Boxes 7 & 8 📏 525m ⏱ 4:48pm
TAB fixed odds: $4.20 Win (Xavien Bale)
TAB fixed odds: $15 Win (Kinson Bale)
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538487/race/3
The Watchdog says 🎤 : REBEL RIOT (1) is a high class speedster, but he is well under the odds tonight. His box manners aren’t great, and he likes to move to the middle of the track at the first bend, so with a slick beginner in TRENDY UNIVERSE (2) drawn on his outside, he is likely to get crowded in the initial stages. With that expected to occur, in-form speedsters XAVIEN BALE (7) and KINSON BALE (8) should have more than enough pace to cross to the rail early on and either of them could easily dash away mid race. ‘Xavien’ broke the clock at Geelong last time, and he has raced well here in the past, so if he finds the top early, he will take a power of beating, whilst ‘Kinson’ has a quick PB here and if his kennelmate happens to cop a knock at the bend, he could be off and gone at nice odds.
💰 $3 Quaddie – 10% (30 combinations)
📍 Cranbourne 🏁 Races 5 – 8 ⏱ 5:32pm ***includes Must Watch Race***
Form 👉 https://watchdog.grv.org.au/meeting/666538522/race/5
🦵 🦵: 2,6,8
🦵 🦵 🦵: 8
🦵 🦵 🦵 🦵: 1,5,6,7,9
The Watchdog says 🎤 : HEIDI (1) and COOLANT (8) are track specialists and should dominate the first leg. PROVIDENCE BALE (2) and GYPSY YANKEE (6) should set the tempo in the second leg, and we have included the strong ARATUZA BALE (8) just in case the leaders have a bumping duel. FERNANDO MICK (8) was colossal when placed here last week and he should go one better tonight. The main event is an absolute cracker and I think there are several chances outside of the favourite QWARA BALE (1).
💰 RECENT $10 INVESTMENTS 💰
Friday 20 August: $0 (-100%)
Thursday 19 August: $8.40 (-16%)
Wednesday 18 August: $16.28 (+63%)
Tuesday 17 August: $0 (-100%)
Monday 16 August: $29.38 (+194%)
Sunday 15 August: $0 (-100%)
Saturday 14 August: $0 (-100%)
Past 7 days: $54.06 for $70 invested (-23%)
Past 14 days: $102.69 for $140 invested (-27%)
Past 28 days: $226.67 for $280 invested (-19%)
📅 MONTH x MONTH RECORD
July 2021: $309.18 for $300 (+3%)
June 2021: $324.38 for $300 (+8%)
NOTE: June was the first full-month of the new-look Daily Mail, in which The Watchdog has a $10 daily spend.
*Please gamble responsibly
The content on this page was accurate at the time of publishing. If you notice any inaccurate content on this page or anywhere on the website, please report it here