Expert form analyst The Watchdog believes there’s great value for punters in Thursday night’s Group 1 double-header at Sandown Park, boldly going around favourites Shima Shine in the Harrison-Dawson and Qwara Bale in the Sapphire Crown.
On the back of a near-record 29.00sec heat victory, TAB installed Shima Shine as $2.40 Harrison-Dawson favourite but while having enormous respect for Andrea Dailly’s champion, The Watchdog has cautioned that box two might not be ideal.
“I know he’s won six from nine from box two but he can miss the start and they’re going to come across hard and fast so he might get crowded.”
The Watchdog has identified the outside pair in likely leader Fernando Bluey (box 7) at $6.50 and flying 29.10sec heat Tiggerlong Tonk (box 8) at $3.70 as key winning chances but is keen to take the $2.80 on offer about powerhouse chaser Equalizer (box 4) to run a place.
“There could be a bit of bunching at that first turn, going to be a lot happening, and he (Equalizer) might get a nice run through,” said The Watchdog.
“If he’s in the top five as they head to the back he’s going to be really charging to the line and as we saw in those two Meadows wins in April he can really hit the line and destroy the clock even coming from off the speed.”
The Watchdog’s $20 Harrison-Dawson spend
$12 Place – Equalizer @ $2.80
$8 Trifecta – 7,8 / 3,4,7,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,7,8 (26.66%)
Team Dailly also has the favourite and fastest qualifier for the Sapphire Crown in rising star Qwara Bale, which heads betting at $2.40 after backing up her stunning Group 2 Warrnambool Cup triumph with a 29.28sec heat victory.
While Qwara Bale is yet to taste defeat in three starts at Sandown, The Watchdog is prepared to risk her from a potentially awkward alley in six and says the $7.50 on offer about the well-drawn Junk Food Junkie (box 2) is the value in a very open race.
“Junk Food Junkie is always a contender in these types of races; she’s been in the finals of a few quality races and just always seems to do everything right at box-rise and puts herself in the race.
“I think Crazy Cool (box 1) will probably hold the lead but that will allow ‘the Junkie’ to get through and she gets her chance to nab a big one. Everything points to her and I think she’s tremendous value at $7.50.
“I also think it’s worth looking at Carry On Star (box 4). She’s been brilliant in her two runs since returning from WA, she’s powering to the line at the moment.”
The Watchdog’s $20 Sapphire Crown spend
$6 Win – Junk Food Junkie @ $7.50
$4 Win – Carry On Star @ $11
$10 Trifecta – 2,4,7 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,4,6,7,8 (27.77%)
WATCH: Carry On Star (4) upset Shima Classic (1) in a Sapphire Crown heat and The Watchdog believes she can win the final at nice odds.
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