This Saturday’s Sportsbet Australian Cup at The Meadows is a beauty, as it always is and as it should be as one of Australia’s premier events.
The market has the fastest semi-final winners, with the best draws, as the pair most likely to win the race in Dramatical (1) and Cleo’s Star (2).
While we don’t always learn things we don’t already know in the Race Data, it does paint the clearest picture possible comparing past performances and what to expect next.
Most of them had pretty clear runs in their semi-finals, aside from Slick Splits (4), Mav Reiko (7) and probably Irish Bill (8). Here are some takeaways.
For most of these finalists, from 20m to 525m there isn’t a lot to separate them on. So the passage is obviously really important.
The two favourites and two closest drawn to the rail, took the Dulux off it last week with the lowest average distance to rail. Mepunga Reward (8) had the highest, and should mind his own business from the pink this week and spread the wings late.
Dramatical (1) will be slow to begin again, but the draw comes into play mid-race where he will be ripping shreds off them and covering the least amount of ground – his 200m-400m section is brutally fast.
Irish Bill (4) doesn’t stand out here as he was knocked around turning for home in his semi-final. The week prior in his heat, he ran home in a crazy time of 11.79 and took 5.86 to complete the last 100m, it’s the best of this lot – better than Mepunga Reward (8), his closing stages here were extremely similar to his Temlee run.
Make whatever assumptions you like with this information, but for me, Cleo’s Star (2) is a huge chance to lead the race. Based on the rest of it, she’ll lead to the home turn and be under big pressure, unless it’s Irish Bill (4) or Mepunga Reward (8) on her hammer, she’ll be hard to get past.
See Race Data for sectionals and speeds at The Meadows, Sandown Park and Healesville
Below data based on performances in last Saturday’s semi-finals.
