The Watchdog agrees with TAB’s $2.70 fixed odds assessment of Yozo Bale (Box 3) and Kysaiah (Box 5) for the $74,800 Group 2 Geelong Gold Cup Final (520m) this Friday night.

“They deserve to be joint favourites,” said the expert form analyst – albeit with some reservation.

“However, I don’t think they’re going to get everything their way. If you have a look at the speed runners here, you have Aston Merit (Box 2), Yozo Bale, Kysaiah and then also Unathi Bale (Box 8).

“Unathi Bale went 5.33sec at the first marker last week, which is ridiculous. From box eight, he’s going to have to replicate that to get across and even if he does, he’s very suspect late.

“Looking at the other three mentioned, they’ve gone 5.43sec, 5.42sec and 5.46sec and then you throw Substantial (Box 4) in at 5.44sec, so you’ve got five in line going into that first turn.”

Click HERE  for TAB’s latest Geelong Gold Cup Final market

The Watchdog concedes he was somewhat surprised by Aston Merit’s heat performance.

“I didn’t think he’d run out a true ‘500’, but he proved me wrong last week. I think that was a really gutsy heat win and he’ll be better for that run.

“He seems to be getting stronger all the time and with the lack of early speed in the ‘one’ (Winnington Bale), he’s going to find the top through the first turn.

“I reckon he can push through; he’s got elite mid-race pace. They’re going to have to catch him.”

“I just think it’s his (Aston Merit) time. He’s getting stronger and is peaking now.”

– THE WATCHDOG

And The Watchdog is of the opinion Yozo Bale and Kysaiah “got it cheap” in their heat wins.

“They didn’t have to work hard… On Friday night, it’s going to be a different story.

“I’m not saying they can’t win, obviously they’re great chances, but I think Aston Merit does hold the key.”

The Watchdog’s $20 spend

$10 on Aston Merit to win at $6.50
$10 on Emani Bale to place at $4.20
*** Emani Bale was $6.71 the place when The Watchdog recorded his preview ***

The Watchdog also believes if there’s some bunching up front, the run-on types will come into the race.

“You’ve got Emani Bale (Box 7) and Winnington Bale (Box 1). I know Winnington Bale is very inexperienced, but he’s got the right box. He’s going to get a nice sit.

“Emani Bale was super last week and she’s racing with tremendous confidence. She’s versatile and I think she’s huge value to run a place.”

But The Watchdog says, “I’m going with Aston Merit ($6.50) and I think he can lead all the way.

“Substantial is also overs at $6.50. And I know Kysaiah is a star in the making, but box five really does concern me.”

In regards to Emani Bale, The Watchdog says, “There’s plenty of speed up front, and there’s going to be some bunching, so they could be sitting ducks for her. And she’ll really power to the line.”

Group 2 GEELONG GOLD CUP FINAL (520m)
Geelong Race 8, Friday 9:27pm
First prize $50,000
1 WINNINGTON BALE (Rebecca Gibbons, Avalon VIC)
2 ASTON MERIT (Jessica Sharp, Avalon VIC)
3 YOZO BALE (Correy Grenfell, Anakie VIC)
4 SUBSTANTIAL (Anthony Azzopardi, Rowsley VIC)
5 KYSAIAH (Carly Feltham, Devon Meadows VIC) ?
6 STORM STROLLER (Paul Bartolo, Little River VIC)
7 EMANI BALE (Daniel Gibbons, Avalon VIC)
8 UNATHI BALE (Correy Grenfell, Anakie VIC)
Reserves
9 WEBLEC RANGER  SCRATCHED
10 TITAN BLAZER  SCRATCHED

WATCH: Group 3 runner-up ASTON MERIT (1) was able to outlast his rivals in his heat of the Group 2 Geelong Gold Cup (520m) in 29.97 seconds on April 15.     Results

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