Ethanol Water, Orli Bale and Ethanol Volume after their McKenna heat wins.

  • Tuesday, 02 Jul, 2024,
  • by Jason Adams

A look at the McKenna by the numbers

After three heats of the McKenna Memorial ran last week, the stage is set for a ripping contest at Sandown Park this Thursday night.

In 2010, the McKenna went from a 715m event to 595m and has since been won by a combination of greyhounds considered to be primary sprinters and stayers.

In this year’s edition, outside of the brief ‘700-metre’ form of Osanna Bale, there’s only a handful of finalists that have been tested over further than ‘600’ metres. Which means the first 20-100m is going to be vital to deciding the race, with so much mid-race speed it’s unlikely a runner will be able to swoop the field and win.

So who is most likely to be pouring the early heat on? See the below sectional data and key points in review of how all finalists performed in their heat last Thursday – click here for the home of Race Data.

The McKenna Memorial is Race 8 (8.37pm) at Sandown Park this Thursday. American Queen has been scratched due to illness, making way for first reserve Lakeview Nola.

Summary – Time to each traditional beam and key sections

Not many surprises here as they’re largely numbers we’re used to and reflective of the results of each heat. One part that stands out is Crackerjack Boom’s last 100m slightly better than Ethanol Water, but of course he’s relying on another scratching to gain a start.

Cumulative – Time to 20m, 50m and 100m sections

Again, this largely paints the picture of what we saw. While Orli Bale almost matched Ethanol Water to the 500m mark he had the slowest last 100m compared to the other finalists.

With Lakeview Nola now gaining a start, and in all likelihood from box 1 (barring another scratching), she could have a big say on how this race looks early. Her time of 2.01 to 20m is sharp and an edge over her opposition. Ignore her cumulative time, she was on the back foot early and is naturally going to be slower to those marks being off the speed.

Splits – Time between each section listed in ‘Cumulative’

This is where things get more interesting. As well, further highlights how good Ethanol Water was last week, you can’t set the overall time she did without serious sustained speed throughout the whole journey.

Ethanol Volume is second favourite ($3.80) for the final but his tame early sections that we see above are unlikely to change. With his habit of racing wide, on the bend start and into the turn he’s immediately giving chances to the rest of them. From an outside draw he can afford that because he simply hooks around them, but from an inside draw this week and closest he’s been drawn to the rail in eight starts, he’s going to be under the pump and pushing wide at the 515m boxes.

Who does this advantage? Lakeview Nola.

We mentioned her further up the page, this table shows that when she regained momentum in the second half of the race she matched it with the others. Her start prior she won at Sale (640m) in 36.51 – a whisker off Your Colour Room’s record of 36.50 (albeit a relatively small sample size since Sale’s reopening in September last year).

Speed – KM/H to each stage of the race

The negative colour scale at 50m is skewed by Crackerjack Boom as he was poor to begin and squished at the first apex.

Orli Bale was motoring from the jump to through the catching pen area – he has speed to burn and on these numbers has an edge on Ethanol Water especially given he’s drawn underneath her. But the speed of Ethanol Water when she turned for home is unmatched.

After all that, a tip?

Lakeview Nola ($14 – Sportsbet, Monday 3pm) . She’s already had a slice of luck going into box 1 (barring another scratching) as first reserve. She was the best to begin of the finalists and her sections late are competitive. Not to mention Ethanol Volume on her immediate outside, he will push wide on the track which will give room to Lakeview Nola.

McKenna Memorial Honour Roll (Since held over 595m)
Flash Of Light (2010), Strong Intention (2011), Irma Bale (2012), Proven Impala (2013), Xylia Allen (2014), Lady Toy (2015), Bruce Tycoon (2016), Shima Song (2017), Out Of Range (2018), Often Imitated (2019), Christo Bale (2020/2021), Stout Monelli (2022) and Sunnyside Zeus (2023)

WATCH: Ethanol Volume (6) ultra tough to defeat American Queen (5) and Lakeview Nola (4)

WATCH: Orli Bale (2) perfect on return defeating Big Energy (3) and Stomping (6)

WATCH: Ethanol Water (2) breathtaking ahead of Make No Promise (3)

Jason AdamsJason Adams

Jason Adams

Jason Adams has been involved in greyhound racing for 10 years. He spent almost all of that time at Sandown Park before recently transitioning to GRV. He’s also a part of the Sky Racing team and regular contributor on RSN. Part-owner of promising racehorse Keshi Boom.

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